The Middle Eastern question

[David Horn]

(12-30-2016, 02:33 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I'm interested in seeing how the latest cease fire attempt goes.  Russia has been supporting Assad, perhaps as his has been supporting the Russian basing rights in Syria.  The dominant tribes in Turkey's government also exist in Syria, and Turkey has been supporting these tribes in attempting to overthrow Assad.  Meanwhile, the United States seems more interested in stopping terror attacks in the West than in what is best for the Syrians.  Iran is backing different groups than Turkey, but their perspective hasn't gotten far from supporting those with similar religious and tribal connections.

My gut feel is that Assad is hated enough that there will be rebellions until he is gone, but as long as Russia backs him he will be there.  If Assad and Russia are granting a right to exist to the tribal groups with kin across the border in Turkey, that part of Syria might go quiet for a time.  Alas, the over / under time for cease fires seems to be measured in days rather than weeks.  I don't anticipate US policy changing much until Trump gets sworn in.  After that, who knows?

Trump makes unpredictability a point of honor and a strength he holds over adversaries.  It may or may not work in commercial venues, but foreign affairs is not the place to play guessing games.  It's too easy to guess wrong, and wrong can be catastrophic.  I'm still not sure whether Trump cares if it does.