Has the regeneracy arrived?

[Eric the Green]

(01-09-2017, 09:26 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

SomeGuy Wrote:A regeneracy does not imply that all problems are solved, only that a consensus has been reached about how society is going to try to solve them, and that the populace is willing to allow them to play it out for the remainder of the 4T.

I just saw this. Here you are assuming your premises.  You are assuming the 4T will end soon.  Thus, if Trump manages to win a second term, a feat achieved by 78% of the presidents in my lifetime, 2016 will be a regeneracy because Trump will have been the last president of the 4T.  Now think about what that means.  It says a 4T is such a nothing-burger that whichever party is in control when the generations involved in a 4T are getting too old and so the turning must end defines the structure of the turning.

Past American 4Ts were obvious crises.  So you invoke the Glorious 4T that was also a nothing-burger like this one.    But exactly what is crisis-like about the Glorious 4T?  Yeah we had an Indian war that because the American population in New England was low looks like a big war in terms of casualties per capita. By this measure the second most deadly "war" in American history was the 1634 skirmish between the Pilgrims and Puritans that killed 2.  I don't doubt that King Phillips war was a crisis for the New England colonies, but so were all such events for the people affected.  And it was over in 1676. Where is the 4T?

I'm not sure how big the war was in the colonies. But the colonies were still pretty much parts of Britain, and that's where the name comes from, from what happened in Britain. And there, the Crisis was very difficult, international, major and consequential. And very significant for the future history of the USA.

I agree though. What is more likely is that Trump stirs up so much trouble that no-one will doubt we are in crisis by the time he's through. He may even be re-elected. But the progressive counterwave will be tidal, if this is a 4T. Only then can we finally break through the logjam that is causing this 4T. 2022 will be the sixth year of a Republican term. Those 6th years are always strong anti-incumbent waves, and this time it should be so strong that the incumbent (Trump, Pence or whoever) is rendered a figurehead. That will be a turnaround as big as what happened early in the 4T for FDR. Of course, I saw that as happening even if Hillary had won in 2016. By 2020, the Democratic recovery in the House and Senate should have proceeded far enough that the next step will be veto-proof power in both houses.

I may be wrong, but if so, then if mikebert is saying that this 4T is a dud, he would be correct. I suspect however that even if my prediction of a Democratic takeover in 2022-24 fails, it will still be an upheaval, but the result will be failure and defeat for the progressive side, which will mean the end of the USA as we knew it and the start of a decline that may be long or short, but precipitous anyway. If the neo/classical liberals win, the result will be total disaster and a failed 4T.