Neil Howe: 'Civil War Is More Likely Than People Think'

[Marypoza]

(01-09-2017, 11:03 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(01-09-2017, 02:24 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The incumbent party DID win last yr, but in cases where the electoral vote conflicts with the popular vote, this indicator (new moon before election) has always predicted the popular vote. SO, I didn't sufficiently take that possibility into account.

But our republic is only 200+ years old, and a new wrinkle appeared that may be significant in 2020. This was that Uranus was square the Ascendant in 2016's New Moon, but from the 3rd instead of the 4th House. Uranus square the Ascendant from the 4th House, or in the 4th House, has always indicated a popular revolt against the party in power.

But Uranus square the Ascendant (from below, but not from the 4th House) had never happened before in any of those charts. It symbolized, I presume, the unprecedented nature of this election, much as Lichtman also said. The wrinkle is that this same thing happens again in 2020. So that could be a wild card election too. Like in 2016, the party in power is favored to win the popular vote, according to the usual indications shown by which ruler (Asc or Desc.) is higher in the sky at the moment of the New Moon before the election. But Uranus will square the Ascendant for only the second time ever from the 3rd house and not the 4th. Along with the greater "New Moon" of the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction that shifts the direction of political events every 20 years, it would suggest that Trump's defeat is possible if he runs again.

So what will happen in 2020 is not clear yet, and of course, I am not an infallible prophet.

Three republics are more than two hundred years old. The  oldest is San Marino, a postage-stamp-sized country completely enclosed within Italy; the United States of America (which will probably soon become a Republic in Name Only), and Switzerland (barely over 200 in its current incarnation). Switzerland will likely outlast the USA as a republic. Only 200 years old? That is an eternity for a republic. The o nly older political system still in existence is the Hanoverian kingdom that took the throne in England in the early 1700s.

Given a choice between having a monarch with few reserve powers that the monarch is unlikely to ever use and a dictatorial President, Prime Minister, Premier, or Party Boss who somehow avoids the temptation of a jeweled crown and scepter, I'll take the constitutional monarch who has come to accept a formal and practical democracy any day. Thus I will take Elizabeth II over Donald Trump any day.

-- & so the Revolution comes full circle........