Quote:Thanks for the link. I thought you had gotten the physical book (which gives you quite an advantage as I read it 15 years ago)
I did get the physical book. Of course, I don't bring it with me to the office and so I sent you a link to the Google Books copy instead. Why on Earth would I say "Thank you, Amazon" if I only had the GOOGLE book as a reference? Reading comprehension is apparently not your strong suit, as can be shown again by...
Quote:I see where you are getting at. M&T were looking at growth in percentage terms (see chapter 6 for the data). Maximum growth will always occur early in the growth period because it is off a small base. Their methods are really identifying the innovation phase of the leading sector growth curve (innovation wave).
No, what they are measuring is the growth generated by a new industry (or rather cluster of industries around a common set of innovations and feeding off each other) servicing new demands (or old demands in a new way) during the exponential phase of the innovation cycle, and the extent to which that growth is concentrated in a particular country at a particular time. The resulting profits from that are what give the resources for countries to become (or, in the case of Britain II, stay) hegemons. If you're going to use M & T, actually use what THEY said and not what you think they should have said.
Quote:Their cotton measure reflects the textile innovations of the 1760's and they show a peak soon after in the 1780's. There last date from that table I linked to is 1973, which corresponds to the peak growth for the information economy leading sectors. If you measure by percentage growth and look as PCs as the fundamental measure the peak probably was in the early 1970's. The first recognizable PCs came out then. Output must have grown from zero to positive at this time, generating an infinite growth rate and so a "peak" in the IT leading sector.
What I am getting at is the 2030 K-wave "peak" by this measure will reflect the recent development of a new, as yet undiscovered, leading sector. It is based on a future events that have not yet happened. So on what basis are you predicting this innovation at an earlier time?
This is ridiculous. No, what THEY said was that the IT sector was the likely focus of the 19th "k-wave", and they show it STARTING around 1973. They were writing in the mid-90s, and so if they thought that it had peaked in 1973 they would have said so. Again, you are confusing your pet theories with what someone else said.
Quote:I am not sure you understand the process used to arrive at the 2030 date. There is a difference between understanding the M&T concepts and being able to apply them. Warren will understand this. It is the difference between understanding the material in the chapter and being able to do all the problems at the end of the chapter.
I don't think you have the least idea what they actually said, and are actually constructing an entirely different theory based on your hazy recollections from 15 years ago. It is the difference between actually studying for a class versus saying you read the textbook back in freshman year and are just going to try and bullshit your way through instead.
