01-14-2017, 11:42 AM
(01-12-2017, 05:23 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:(01-12-2017, 01:57 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: All of this shit assumes a monotonic "improvement function" or "progress curve."
Then there is the black swan.
Something that rhymes with the Age of Migrations.
Automation?
Hell ... not if but when we hit the inevitable mother-of-all-curve-balls (or rather, it hits us), you'll be lucky to have running water, sewage / trash removal, electricity, gas, etc.
I've been trying to point out all the potential discontinuities, as opposed to linear extrapolations of current trends, over such a long time frame for a while now here, and people haven't been buying it. Like I said, I think it is pretty much faith-based at this point.
On the one hand you have peak oil, climate change, the potential for nuclear war, economic breakdown (whether globally or just in the US), etc.
On the other you have the Singularity (which I don't really buy into, but always a possibility), transhumanism, advances in genomics, etc.
The one thing we do know is that the mid-21st century is unlikely to be just 2016 with better stuff.
Not a bad survey of the issues, but pretending that nothing can be known so nothing can be done is not a solution either. Getting to mid-century will involve taking risks, but risks should address reality. My concern about Trump: he may actually believe his own blather. Among the many issues of importance, ignoring AGW and growing economic inequality are unacceptable behaviors from any risk perspective. Failing is never as bad as not even trying.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.