Report Card for Donald Trump

[SomeGuy]

(01-14-2017, 11:42 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-12-2017, 05:23 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(01-12-2017, 01:57 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: All of this shit assumes a monotonic "improvement function" or "progress curve."

Then there is the black swan.

Something that rhymes with the Age of Migrations.

Automation?

Hell ... not if but when we hit the inevitable mother-of-all-curve-balls (or rather, it hits us), you'll be lucky to have running water, sewage / trash removal, electricity, gas, etc.

I've been trying to point out all the potential discontinuities, as opposed to linear extrapolations of current trends, over such a long time frame for a while now here, and people haven't been buying it.  Like I said, I think it is pretty much faith-based at this point.

On the one hand you have peak oil, climate change, the potential for nuclear war, economic breakdown (whether globally or just in the US), etc.

On the other you have the Singularity (which I don't really buy into, but always a possibility), transhumanism, advances in genomics, etc.

The one thing we do know is that the mid-21st century is unlikely to be just 2016 with better stuff.

Not a bad survey of the issues, but pretending that nothing can be known so nothing can be done is not a solution either.  Getting to mid-century will involve taking risks, but risks should address reality.  My concern about Trump: he may actually believe his own blather.  Among the many issues of importance, ignoring AGW and growing economic inequality are unacceptable behaviors from any risk perspective.  Failing is never as bad as not even trying.

I am not saying that nothing should be done, just that we should work within a shorter time-frame.  I have outlined some of the things that Trump ran on that I would like to see done.  This is not to say that there aren't other (more "left"-y) things that I would also like to see done, but that will have to wait for a future administration.  And, as I pointed out in the other thread (Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi), the victory of Donald Trump is an excellent opportunity for the Dems or whoever on the left to clear away the Clinton/DNC legacy and come up with something better.

Quote:The first indication of discontinuity was the unlinking of productivity and median income gains.  That happened ~1973 and the new trend lines continued up to the present.

It is an issue, and a serious one at that.  One I don't think was linked to automation (not that I am accusing you of saying that it is).