01-24-2017, 06:13 PM
Quote:How so? I gave these examples: For example, Portugal began its K-wave program in 1415.
No, they first tried seizing ports from Morocco in 1415. The K-wave didn't occur until they got down to Guinea in 1430, and got around the middleman. In the text, that wave is specifically called Guinea Gold. And it died out around 1500. They reached hegemony after the start of the next k-wave centered around Vasco de Gama blazing the trail to the Indian Ocean.
Quote:The Netherlands had already dominated Baltic trade in the 16th century and sealed the deal with the development of the fluyt in the 1570's, long before they became hegemon in 1609.
Start up for Baltic & Atlantic Trades for the Netherlands was in 1540, when the Dutch role in the Habsburg empire was expanded with the vast flow of silver from San Luis de Potosi after 1540. It wasn't even an independent country until about 1609 (which wasn't even formally confirmed by Spain until 1648). That's where that date comes from.
Quote:he British began building the economic foundations for hegemony with the successful cultivation of tobacco at Jamestown (tobacco) in 1617 and settlement of Barbados (sugar) in 1627, long before 1714.
Date for the start point of the boom was 1640, with the fighting between the Dutch and Portuguese fighting in Brazil driving up the price of sugar, and the Navigation Acts of 1650 confirming British control of its own production. Production didn't really boom until the introduction of the plantation system and the surge in the slave trade, which didn't happen till the late 17th century. There were more white people than black in places like Barbados, Jamaica, and elsewhere during the first half of the 17th century. Britain was also fighting with the Dutch, frequently on the losing end, on and off for much of the 17th century, and it was technically taken over by the Dutch Stadtholder in 1688. It also technically lost the War of the Spanish Succession, since there is a Bourbon on the throne to this day.
So we are looking at about a 70 year lead from agenda-setting to hegemony. So, hegemony around 2050 means a start date around the late 70s?
Quote:This is a deviation from the earlier cycles. I would point out that a nation that cannot pioneer a new leading sector on its own is not really a candidate for hegemon.
The British were not the first to cultivate sugar. America did not invent the automobile. Dutch and British finance, respectively, were critical to each their development. So no, I don't see that as a rule. I can find an M & T quote to that effect if you like.
Quote: would point our that Japan in the 1970's and 1980's had a vibrant economy that could easily have hosted the IT leading sector.
Depends on what you see the post-1973 growth sectors as. Software, or hardware? Japan, and later the other Asian countries, pretty much put the US out of business in the latter.
Quote:And how much NEW cutting edge tech is being developed in the next hegemon today?.
Have you SEEN a graduate class recently? They don't all stay here. Ever seen Weibo or Alibaba?
Quote:By now they should be decades ahead of us.
Pretty sure we weren't "decades" ahead of Britain when they passed the baton to us. The British certainly weren't compared to the Dutch in 1714. This is also not a rule.
Quote:It is going to take a few decades for China to pull ahead of us by sufficient margin to be a world leader.
Consider the population difference. In PPP terms it is larger now, has a larger manufacturing capacity, more internet and mobile usersand doesn't have to even reach Asian Tiger levels of per capita to dwarf us as a share of the global economy.
Quote:You seem to think if China gains control over it's near abroad and gains a free hand in trade policy that constitutes hegemonic status. We had that in the 19th century and Britain gained it after the Armada crisis. I see more as necessary.
You seem to think that if it doesn't become Victorian Britain or Eisenhower's America that it doesn't qualify. Those were not the only two hegemons. A China that constituted between a quarter and a third of world GDP, the largest consumer market, control over a "near abroad" constituting half the world's population, and a naval share large enough to manage it, WOULD be a hegemon.