(01-28-2017, 10:48 AM)SomeGu Wrote: You're making up rules that don't exist again. The Napoleonic Wars occurred almost entirely in a 1T, as did the War of the Spanish Succession. Besides, I believe Howe conclusively came out in support of a 2008 start date. So, no, your point is incorrect.
What rules? Did M&T not project the Macrodecision phase or 2025-2050? I could have sworn it was so. S&H projected the 4T start for 2005, OK I had 2006. They have since then identified 2008 as the start. As for the end they never projected that. One can use various methods to gets dates all throughout the 2020's. 2024 is produced by one I am currently using so I put that down. One can get a variety of results depending on your assumptions, YMMV.
Of the six 4T's two have macrodecison era issues as key compoents (Armada and WW II). The latter of these has complete overlap with the Macrodecision phase, so plenty opporunity for interaction. The Armada 4T had a decent amount of overlap as well. Of the 4T that did not feature global war as a key element, three (WotR, US Rev & USCW) were mostly or entirely outside of a macrodecision phase and so there was no opportunity for interaction. For the Glorious Revolution there is no significant overlap between the secular crisis (1675-92) (see Generations) and the Macrodecision phase. S&H extended the turning to 1704 in T4T, 12 years after the end of the secular crisis social moment, which gives some overlap. Since I view Generations as the foundational text from a theoretical pov, I tend to focus on what they wrote then, when they were still writing in a scholarly vein.
The turnings are anything if not flexible and one could draw this 4T from 2008-36 and obtain lots of overlap. This doesn't "break" any rules of precedent. There have been five past turnings this long or longer, but not recently. The recent 3T was already the longest turning in 200 years. But that's not the issue. The whole idea they had was that these generations they identified would play significant roles in the times to come. Warren turns 60 (the average age at which power is wielded these days) in2020 and he's the last of the line for the Prophets. We can expect the torch to pass to the Xers in the early 2020's and to the Millies 20-25 years after that. By the time the Macrodecison era comes to an end and the hegemony issues settled mid-century, the Heroes will be in charge. That's a 2T configuration.
You can call a period in which Nomads have been calling the shots for a decade a 4T, but does it fit the concept of the cycle as generational--as S&H proposed?