Yeah, I have (in my personal, non-orthodox S & H reading) always lumped Reagan, Teddy, and Jackson together as sort of mid-saeculum realigning presidents. They are not identical, by any means, but that sort of 2T/3T transition has been ripe for somebody to set the tone of the era as the old paradigm from the last 4T dies/changes and the new coalition that wins the next one is not yet in evidence. Like I said, it's not a view I hold other people to, but it is one that I hold myself.
Trump is not one of those figures. He's either going to be the personification of the winning coalition or the face of the opposition the winning coalition triumphs over. I say that both from the period that we are in and the circumstances of/reactions to his election. Another result (Trump as an ordinary figure) would, in my view, tend to invalidate the idea of the 4T in general. As I have stated to Mikebert previously.
EDIT Note that I don't mean that the 4T would be invalidated by my own private test, I mean that if the immediate future starts look less like what was predicted in T4T I will pay less attention to it.
Trump is not one of those figures. He's either going to be the personification of the winning coalition or the face of the opposition the winning coalition triumphs over. I say that both from the period that we are in and the circumstances of/reactions to his election. Another result (Trump as an ordinary figure) would, in my view, tend to invalidate the idea of the 4T in general. As I have stated to Mikebert previously.
EDIT Note that I don't mean that the 4T would be invalidated by my own private test, I mean that if the immediate future starts look less like what was predicted in T4T I will pay less attention to it.