(02-07-2017, 11:52 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: Mike,China will always be a powerful nation on Russia's borders, just as America is for Canada or Mexico (both of which America has invaded in the past). An America focused on the outer world (i.e. the concerns of a great power seeking hegemonic status some day) was less of a threat to its neighbors than when it was a regional power and focused on its own backyard. A China that finds seeking what it wants through oceanic trade frustrating because of American opposition may adopt a closer focus. Not all great powers choose the maritime route (Russia does not, neither did Germany or even Spain, who were forever intervening into central Europe instead of developing their global empire). As a local, Russia might prefer a China focused externally (i.e. as a hegemon).
Quote:It seems to be that Chinese hegemony would be much more acceptable to the Russian than American hegemony.
Quote:China borders Russia, a land-based great power with an enormous nuclear arsenal, and India, with a population roughly similar it is own. China does not have the luxury of friendly neighbors allowing them to focus on power projection. They will have to remain a considerable land power.
These two statements do not got together.
Since Russia is not a neighbor of America it does not benefit from America's outward focus. America's subsidies of NATO powers are a problem for them similar to British subsidies to lesser European powers were for France in the 18th and early 19th centuries. That is, America's outward focus resulted in a greater threat to them from NATO (twice before the West has invaded Russia) than China has ever been. I see no reason why Russia cannot have a good relation with China with each pursuing their own non-conflicting spheres.
It won't be like the US-Canada relation. Russia is expansionist, and so China will have to maintain strong land forces as a deterrent. But if Russia can help China give the US a sufficient bloody nose so as to encourage retreat into an isolationist stance, then China's focus will be elsewhere and Russia will have a free hand to recover some of the empire it lost, and keep their ruling class in power through nationalism. If Russia aids the US, then China is frustrated and is pissed at them, and America won't let them have their empire.