Report Card for Donald Trump

[Mikebert]

(02-08-2017, 05:50 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Are you positing a 20 year 4T, or 10-12 year one?  If a 20 year one, are you positing a 100 year saeculum?

I wasn't positing anything. That was the point.  A turning, and the dates from it, are the output of a theoretical model.
They are not facts.  What are facts are events:

Battle of Bosworth Field (end of WotR) 1485
Pilgrimage of Grace (response to Henry VIII's break with the Church) 1536
Spanish Armada 1588
Start of English Civil War 1642
Glorious Revolution 1688
Connecticut Valley Awakening 1734
Declaration of Independence 1776
Founding of the Liberator 1831
Emancipation Proclamation 1863
TR becomes president, staring the Progressive Era 1901
Start of New Deal 1933
Start of Reagan Revolution 1981
Trump wins election 2016

The spacing between these events averages 44 years with standard deviation 8 years.  These events are associated with S&H social moment turnings, which are spaced two generations apart, implying 22 year generations. Of course I selected these events arbitrarily.  You could choose other events,  Pick your own set of 2T/4T events that fit YOUR conception of S&H.  Calculate the average spacing and standard deviation.  You will find them practically the same as mine. Why?  Because the worst case average would be if you chose an event in 1459 as the event for the WotR 4T and 2024 (conservative projection for the end of this 4T) as the event for this 4T, for which the average would be 47, regardless of the dates you chose otherwise.  This is quite close to 44, the result I got from what most people would agree are major events. 

What I am getting at is the dates S&H propose are not important.  What is important is their claim that important events are clustered in the 50% of history that comprise social moment turnings, which is what makes them special.  If important events are scattered randomly throughout history, then there would be no pattern. The hypothesis that a cycle called the saeculum exists is rejected.

To demonstrate that a cycle like the saeculum exists, you have to show that the pattern alluded above exists.  And to do that your have to come up with a plausible definition of an "important event" and then a comprehensive listing of plausible events, followed by a statistical analysis that shows that these events show the particular pattern which you are proposing.