03-04-2017, 05:01 PM
"You unlock this door with the key of imagination. Beyond it is another dimension. We offer, for your consideration..."
Those of you old enough to remember will recognize that lead-in by the late Rod Serling to The Twilight Zone. I make reference to this old TV show because some members of this forum have discussed at length other cycle theories as alternatives to--or modifications of--the generational theory of Strauss and Howe. The other theories cited have ranged from Kondratieff waves to the Modelski model and, yes, even to astrological cycles.
For some time now I've been playing around with a modification of my own. What got me to thinking about it in earnest was viewing the Steve Bannon documentary Generation Zero recently. His documentary, which included short interview segments with Neil Howe, shows slightly different turning boundaries for the Millennial Saeculum, as follows:
The Awakening The Unraveling
Strauss & Howe 1964-1984 1984-2008
Generation Zero 1966-1986 1987-2007
I actually agree more with the documentary's boundaries than I do with those of co-author Neil Howe, although I would further adjust Bannon's boundaries, as follows:
The High The Awakening The Unraveling
1942-1966 1967-1987 1988-2007
Note: I will offer a more detailed (qualitative) justification for the boundaries outlined above in a subsequent post:
The word(s) mood or social mood are used over and over again in The Fourth Turning text, too many times to count. And Strauss and Howe correlate shifts in social mood to the boundaries of the four turnings. So a question comes to mind, and perhaps it's occurred to others of you: Is there a way to gauge shifts in social mood, a barometer if you will, something other than the qualitative assessments offered by Strauss and Howe?
I contend that, yes, there is. According to the Elliott Wave theory, major peaks and troughs in US stock indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, roughly coincide with shifts in social mood. And before any of you familiar with this arcane stock cycle theory turn up your nose, please indulge me for a moment. [I stopped using EW theory to make investments years ago; it's for the most nimble "day traders" only, in my humble opinion.] What I do place stock in, though, is the Fibonacci sequence that Elliott Wave theory incorporates. Some of you may be acquainted with this mathematical concept: a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers. The simplest expression is the series 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 89, 144, 233, etc.
I intend to use the Fibonacci sequence to align the four turning boundaries--past, present, and future--to major turns in the U.S. stock market. I concede that I'm "spitballing" here, so I simply offer this "for your consideration":
The Battle of Lexington and Concord (1775) kicked off the Revolutionary War, though not the Crisis (1773) according to S&H. Add a Fibonacci 233 years to 1775, and the result is 2008, the year of the financial panic that marked the beginning of the current Crisis.
Take the Declaration of Independence (1776) and add a Fibonacci 89 years, and the result is 1865, the end of the Civil War saeculum. If we add, in turn, 8 more years to 1865, the resulting sum is 1873, as in the Panic of 1873. Add another Fibonacci 55 years to 1873, and the result is 1920, which marked the beginning of the 1920-1921 depression that nobody's ever heard of. (If we go back as far as the Glorious Revolution (1688), add a Fibonacci 233 years, the sum is 1921.) Add still another Fibonacci 8 years to the end date of that depression, and the sum is 1929, the year Wall Street crashed, ushering in the twin crises of the Great Depression/World War II.
If you're following my train of thought here, you get the general idea. Which, simply put, is the notion that perhaps the turnings are "rocking to the rhythm" of the Dow, a stock index that has only been in existence since 1896. The mere fact that Howe pinpoints the start of the Millennial Saeculum Crisis (2008) and that of the previous crisis (1929) to stock market crashes would tend to give some credence to this notion of overlaying Fourth Turning theory with a Fibonacci time series.
Here are a few other examples:
1865+144=2009 (end of most recent bear market)
1929+13=1942 (1942 is unorthodox double bottom; a secular bull market begins then, marking the last year the Silents are born)
1921+21=1942
1932+34=1966 (1932 is the absolute bear market bottom; 1966 ends secular bull market--and the American High, as I interpret it)
1932+55=1987 (1987 is the year of the worst Wall Street crash, marking the end of the Awakening--as I interpret it)
1966+8=1974 (1974 is the first bottom in a 16-year secular bear market)
1966+34=2000 (end of a bull market and the dotcom boom, marking the last year the Millennials were born--as I interpret it)
1974+8=1982 (1982 is the "double bottom" in a secular bear market, marking the first year the Millennials are born)
1974+34=2008 (2008 is the climax of a historic financial panic, catalyzing the current Crisis--maybe, as Mikebert has also hedged)
1982+5=1987
1987+13=2000
1987+21=2008
2002+5=2007 (2007 is the peak of a cyclical bull market, and marks the beginning of the financial crisis)
Where am I going with all this? A theory, including a social science theory such as the Fourth Turning, is only as good as its predictive value. So far, I give generational theory a qualified benefit of the doubt. The book has made some amazingly accurate predictions, as we all know. So let me pose a few of my own, while fully acknowledging that making predictions is a mug's game. The truth is, nobody knows anything about the future.
Disclaimer: The following predictions should not be construed as trading or investment advice. Consult your financial advisor for guidance:
2009 was the most recent bear market bottom. According to OEW interpretations of Elliott Waves, bull markets tend to run 5, 8, or 13 years in length. So, using the Fibonacci sequence, the following years present as possible peaks in the current bull market:
2009+5=2014 (that year has obviously passed)
2009+8=2017 (implies a peak this year, perhaps in the spring, more likely in the fall; this would make this bull market analogous to the eight-year run from 1921-1929, and would imply that Trump might be a one-term president)
2009+13=2022 (this would match the longest-running bull market ever (1987-2000), and would imply Trump's re-election)
1929+89=2018 (this year might mark the peak of a second financial crisis, analogous to the 2007 market peak and 2008 crash)
1932+89=2021 (potential bottom of next bear market, analogous to 1929-1932?)
1987+34=2021
2008+13=2021
1942+89=2031 (end of this 4T Crisis?)
And one last thing: 1787+233=2020 (a Constitutional crisis coinciding with the next presidential election?)
Again, just "spitballing" here...
Those of you old enough to remember will recognize that lead-in by the late Rod Serling to The Twilight Zone. I make reference to this old TV show because some members of this forum have discussed at length other cycle theories as alternatives to--or modifications of--the generational theory of Strauss and Howe. The other theories cited have ranged from Kondratieff waves to the Modelski model and, yes, even to astrological cycles.
For some time now I've been playing around with a modification of my own. What got me to thinking about it in earnest was viewing the Steve Bannon documentary Generation Zero recently. His documentary, which included short interview segments with Neil Howe, shows slightly different turning boundaries for the Millennial Saeculum, as follows:
The Awakening The Unraveling
Strauss & Howe 1964-1984 1984-2008
Generation Zero 1966-1986 1987-2007
I actually agree more with the documentary's boundaries than I do with those of co-author Neil Howe, although I would further adjust Bannon's boundaries, as follows:
The High The Awakening The Unraveling
1942-1966 1967-1987 1988-2007
Note: I will offer a more detailed (qualitative) justification for the boundaries outlined above in a subsequent post:
The word(s) mood or social mood are used over and over again in The Fourth Turning text, too many times to count. And Strauss and Howe correlate shifts in social mood to the boundaries of the four turnings. So a question comes to mind, and perhaps it's occurred to others of you: Is there a way to gauge shifts in social mood, a barometer if you will, something other than the qualitative assessments offered by Strauss and Howe?
I contend that, yes, there is. According to the Elliott Wave theory, major peaks and troughs in US stock indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, roughly coincide with shifts in social mood. And before any of you familiar with this arcane stock cycle theory turn up your nose, please indulge me for a moment. [I stopped using EW theory to make investments years ago; it's for the most nimble "day traders" only, in my humble opinion.] What I do place stock in, though, is the Fibonacci sequence that Elliott Wave theory incorporates. Some of you may be acquainted with this mathematical concept: a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers. The simplest expression is the series 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 89, 144, 233, etc.
I intend to use the Fibonacci sequence to align the four turning boundaries--past, present, and future--to major turns in the U.S. stock market. I concede that I'm "spitballing" here, so I simply offer this "for your consideration":
The Battle of Lexington and Concord (1775) kicked off the Revolutionary War, though not the Crisis (1773) according to S&H. Add a Fibonacci 233 years to 1775, and the result is 2008, the year of the financial panic that marked the beginning of the current Crisis.
Take the Declaration of Independence (1776) and add a Fibonacci 89 years, and the result is 1865, the end of the Civil War saeculum. If we add, in turn, 8 more years to 1865, the resulting sum is 1873, as in the Panic of 1873. Add another Fibonacci 55 years to 1873, and the result is 1920, which marked the beginning of the 1920-1921 depression that nobody's ever heard of. (If we go back as far as the Glorious Revolution (1688), add a Fibonacci 233 years, the sum is 1921.) Add still another Fibonacci 8 years to the end date of that depression, and the sum is 1929, the year Wall Street crashed, ushering in the twin crises of the Great Depression/World War II.
If you're following my train of thought here, you get the general idea. Which, simply put, is the notion that perhaps the turnings are "rocking to the rhythm" of the Dow, a stock index that has only been in existence since 1896. The mere fact that Howe pinpoints the start of the Millennial Saeculum Crisis (2008) and that of the previous crisis (1929) to stock market crashes would tend to give some credence to this notion of overlaying Fourth Turning theory with a Fibonacci time series.
Here are a few other examples:
1865+144=2009 (end of most recent bear market)
1929+13=1942 (1942 is unorthodox double bottom; a secular bull market begins then, marking the last year the Silents are born)
1921+21=1942
1932+34=1966 (1932 is the absolute bear market bottom; 1966 ends secular bull market--and the American High, as I interpret it)
1932+55=1987 (1987 is the year of the worst Wall Street crash, marking the end of the Awakening--as I interpret it)
1966+8=1974 (1974 is the first bottom in a 16-year secular bear market)
1966+34=2000 (end of a bull market and the dotcom boom, marking the last year the Millennials were born--as I interpret it)
1974+8=1982 (1982 is the "double bottom" in a secular bear market, marking the first year the Millennials are born)
1974+34=2008 (2008 is the climax of a historic financial panic, catalyzing the current Crisis--maybe, as Mikebert has also hedged)
1982+5=1987
1987+13=2000
1987+21=2008
2002+5=2007 (2007 is the peak of a cyclical bull market, and marks the beginning of the financial crisis)
Where am I going with all this? A theory, including a social science theory such as the Fourth Turning, is only as good as its predictive value. So far, I give generational theory a qualified benefit of the doubt. The book has made some amazingly accurate predictions, as we all know. So let me pose a few of my own, while fully acknowledging that making predictions is a mug's game. The truth is, nobody knows anything about the future.
Disclaimer: The following predictions should not be construed as trading or investment advice. Consult your financial advisor for guidance:
2009 was the most recent bear market bottom. According to OEW interpretations of Elliott Waves, bull markets tend to run 5, 8, or 13 years in length. So, using the Fibonacci sequence, the following years present as possible peaks in the current bull market:
2009+5=2014 (that year has obviously passed)
2009+8=2017 (implies a peak this year, perhaps in the spring, more likely in the fall; this would make this bull market analogous to the eight-year run from 1921-1929, and would imply that Trump might be a one-term president)
2009+13=2022 (this would match the longest-running bull market ever (1987-2000), and would imply Trump's re-election)
1929+89=2018 (this year might mark the peak of a second financial crisis, analogous to the 2007 market peak and 2008 crash)
1932+89=2021 (potential bottom of next bear market, analogous to 1929-1932?)
1987+34=2021
2008+13=2021
1942+89=2031 (end of this 4T Crisis?)
And one last thing: 1787+233=2020 (a Constitutional crisis coinciding with the next presidential election?)
Again, just "spitballing" here...