Big Lies

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-05-2017, 11:19 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: 1.   Eric,  yes, I've read ALL of your posts....
2. OK, I'm calling you you out here. Who , exactly are said, "Rebels". ?
3. Yes, Eric, I've read ALL your posts, wt "Rebels".
4."Rebels" are not all "good", OK ?
5. Obama was wise, not to do shit , wrt "Rebels".
6. The whole idea of supporting "Rebels", is of course, lame. If rebels = "some weird Islamic crap" , then US should not support, "rebels", because they support some sort of Islamic , Sharia.  OK?
7. You're support of  "prayer" is yur downfall. Prayers .... iin the support of Jihad, are always wrong. Western Civilization is not the problem. Sharia law, is what is wrong here, OK?
8.  And I say to you,  "the defense of the Mideast interest is all is a vice, while doing nothing is the defense of liberty, the sanity of doing nothing is a virtue, while shutting down military bases is a victory, is no sweat off our backs is a virtue.
9. This way [getting out of the Mideast] is the virtue. OK, so there is is Erid, do nothing, because the Mideast is a clusterfuck, just get out now, so we can win, yes, wi nEric d, I love to win, not lose stuff.  The Mideast is a shitty hand in poker, like getting dealth 7/2 offsuit. Yes 7/2/ offsuit, you will lose unless you fold, yes fold, OK!!!!!

I'm sympathetic to all of the above.  I'd emphasize a few points.

The rebel factions that count for much have external patrons who wish to increase their influence in the area.  These would include Iran, Turkey and the embryo Kurdistan.  Russia would count too.  While there likely are pure innocent natives striving only to live free under their own traditions, if such folk aren't accepting 'help' from an external sponsor they aren't apt to be significant players.  The situation is better perceived as power play with several tribes / governments / religious factions attempting to expand influence and prevent the others from expanding influence.  As the sort of insurgent war being fought favors keeping one's faction alive over entirely suppressing all the other factions, the common dynamic is quagmire.

Western Civilization is part of the problem.  We are tempted to see the West's central virtues in democracy, human rights and a free economy.  The Middle East has seen Big Oil.  They have been victims of corporate cronyism, and view the west from that perspective.  To them, the Western virtues are Big Lies, promises spoken but never delivered on.  The problem is that Islamic religion promotes virtues that appeal to the locals more than corporate cronyism.  Given the history of the region, this is an entirely understandable choice.

Alas, the governments that result from embracing Islam tend towards Agricultural Age autocratic tyranny.  From a safe vantage point half a world away immersed in a culture centered on Enlightenment values, I can say the emphasis in Islam is a mistake.  It will prolong the instability typical of cultures transitioning from the Agricultural to the Industrial pattern.  Of course I feel the same way of the red cultures of Appalachia and the Rust Belt.  It is one thing to shake one's head in dismay at those committed powerfully and irrationally to the past.  It is another to convince a people immersed in older values that they someday eventually are going to have to catch up.

So, meanwhile, I'll ask Powell's Questions.  If there isn't a clear path to something clearly better, a path that includes bringing our forces home after the goal is achieved, that's a bad hand.  Fold.

Obama did try to train a local set of proxies.  He wanted a bunch of people willing to fight for American goals using American tactics.  The US had a big problem finding volunteers.  They had another big problem with people deserting as soon as they were trained and equipped.  (Thank you, America!  Good bye!)  The tiny force that remained was torn to pieces in its early engagements.  Obama anticipated failure, but bowed to the pressure from Eric like thinkers to at least try some sort of proxy war.  While in theory using local proxies to advance one's goals is a good idea, you need local proxies whose goals are aligned with one's own.  They are hard to find.  Turkey, Iran, Russia and Kurdistan find such proxies easier to recruit.  After his initial prototype proxy effort failed, Obama gave up on it.  I don't expect Trump will try to repeat the experiment.