03-08-2017, 02:24 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2017, 02:49 PM by TeacherinExile.)
Happy Anniversary, Bull Market! Tomorrow marks the eighth anniversary of the second-longest bull market in U.S. history, dating from the March 9, 2009 low in the major stock indices. It's been quite a run for equity investors. So it seems like as a good time as any to ask if the stock market is approaching the kind of "bubble" territory that might usher in the Great Devaluation, to which Strauss & Howe make frequent reference in The Fourth Turning.
I have provided links to some of the more interesting articles published, some of which provide excellent perspective with various graphics.
Disclaimer: Nothing here should be construed as trading or investment advice. Consult your financial advisor for guidance:
Stop! This is NOT like the dot-com bubble... it’s much worse, according to this chart
The dangers lurking within the world’s ‘most deceptive’ stock market chart
Wall Street's super-charged bull faces its own March madness
Stock investors can’t bank on another 8-year bull-market bonanza
A Republican and a Democrat agree: Wall Street’s too bullish on Trump
Bull market depends on whether Trump can deliver on key promises
Of course, the above-referenced articles are limited to the stock market, leaving aside for the time being any discussion of "bubbles" in bonds, real estate, or arts & collectibles. (And, for what it's worth, some investment advisors say that we're already in an "Everything Bubble.")
I have a couple of questions--hopefully not rhetorical. Do you consider the trillions in "lost" wealth, resulting from the financial crisis of 2008, to be sufficient--both in terms of magnitude and duration--to qualify as the Great Devaluation? Or do other factors have to come into play first, such as a fiscal crisis, currency devaluation, what have you?
I have provided links to some of the more interesting articles published, some of which provide excellent perspective with various graphics.
Disclaimer: Nothing here should be construed as trading or investment advice. Consult your financial advisor for guidance:
Stop! This is NOT like the dot-com bubble... it’s much worse, according to this chart
The dangers lurking within the world’s ‘most deceptive’ stock market chart
Wall Street's super-charged bull faces its own March madness
Stock investors can’t bank on another 8-year bull-market bonanza
A Republican and a Democrat agree: Wall Street’s too bullish on Trump
Bull market depends on whether Trump can deliver on key promises
Of course, the above-referenced articles are limited to the stock market, leaving aside for the time being any discussion of "bubbles" in bonds, real estate, or arts & collectibles. (And, for what it's worth, some investment advisors say that we're already in an "Everything Bubble.")
I have a couple of questions--hopefully not rhetorical. Do you consider the trillions in "lost" wealth, resulting from the financial crisis of 2008, to be sufficient--both in terms of magnitude and duration--to qualify as the Great Devaluation? Or do other factors have to come into play first, such as a fiscal crisis, currency devaluation, what have you?