Politico just released a poll of hypothetical 2020 Presidential candidates

[Kinser79]

(03-10-2017, 04:22 AM)Galen Wrote:

(03-09-2017, 11:35 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Since I place the start of the 4T around 2006, I would suspect that 2024 will be just after or during the climax of the 4T.  Much like the election of 1944 or 1864.  2020 is a likely shoe in for Trump because from all the indicators presented by Dem leadership they plan on doubling down on the failed policies that have resulted in their major losses the last three cycles.  After all they didn't ditch Pelosi when they should have.

I mark the start of the fourth turning at 2008.  While 2024 is a good date my own suspicion is that you will know the fourth turning is ending when it becomes obvious the American Empire is over.  Whether that end looks the the end of the British or Roman empires remains to be seen.

Judging from Ryan's Obozocare light bill it is clear that the GOP elites also plan on business as usual.  The problem with a fourth turning is that the business as usual is what got you here.  It doesn't sound like the GOP base agrees with that plan.  This rejection of business as usual is how they ended up with Trump.

The 06-08 debate is a tired on. Howe places the start at 08 and for my purposes it works just as well as 06. I would say that we do agree that the end of the 4T will be noted by the absence of the American Empire. As I told my mother, I look for Trump to be a Gorbachev type figure. He will manage a collapse in such a way that we don't end up with barbarians looting just outside the city gate. (IE USSR rather than Rome). That he could instead be a Gracchus figure instead is just icing for the cake in my book.

As for Ryan I have a feeling that he won't pass his Obamacare 2.0 bill. It's already DOA in the Senate according to such persons as Paul, Cruz and Suzanne Collins. A Libertarian, a Evangelical and a Milquetoast Conservative respectively. In the House the Freedom Caucus won't vote for it, the Democrats are unlikely to (they like Obamacare 1.0 thanks) and there are some 30 other reps saying that they oppose it outside the Freedom Caucus.

As such he's down 70 votes from the 218 he needs to pass. Since it is such a major policy item for his agenda I suspect that he will likely be forced to resigned if he can't pass the bill out of the House. I honestly believe it is DOA in the Senate for various reasons (and would likely be vetoed if it by some miracle ended up on Daddy's desk).