03-11-2017, 10:31 PM
Quote:Huh? You didn't see the rise in British share from 1695 to 1715 and the maintence of a high share for decades after that defines the MD and World Power phases? You missed the 30% decline from 1735 to 1785 indicating the decline during the AG and DC phases? You then missed the resurgence from 1785 to 1815 and the maintenance of high levels for decades after showing a new round of leadership for Britain in the next MD and WP phases?
What? I was talking about your prior claim (from another thread) that a sudden spike in naval share over 50% indicated the start of a new WP phase. Both Portugal (in the 1550s) and Britain II (during and after the Crimean War) had spikes that put them back to or over the 50% mark. Not M&T's claims regarding naval share in general.
Quote:And how would you invalidate the model?
If the predicted events did not occur.
Quote:Is any conflict between the US and China constitute support for your idea that a MD phase will begin around the 2020? How would you prove that a conflict, should one occur, is like the Napoleonic War (an MD war) and not the Seven Years War (a supplementary war)?
Because a MD phase does not last a year, or two, or 7, but 20 or 30. The last several were noticeable as such, as well. The MD phase is also supposed to correspond with the conclusion of the 19th K-wave and start-up period of the 20th, so there is that to watch for as well. At the end of it, one power (presumably America or China) will stand supreme in the way that the US was after WWII or Britain was after the Napoleonic War.
So, if things work out like that, I would consider the thing validated. Considering that the period is supposed to end around the time I would be looking at retirement, to be honest, it isn't something that is going to be keeping me up at night (barring whatever fireworks ensue if it actually plays out that way).