04-23-2017, 03:06 PM
(04-23-2017, 12:35 PM)ChrisP Wrote:(04-23-2017, 05:41 AM)Mikebert Wrote: I have tried to interest some of the other folks in posting here since this site is better for serious posts, threads don't get buried for instance. Also it is better from presenting data. People keep saying they want more theory. Well here's a theory post I just made at the other site. Let's see if it gets any engagement over here.
Now this is not a turning model. It is a model designed to fit the empirical instability data which shows that the last 4T was not a period with a lot of unrest. Thus, the fact that the model forecasts no period of instability for the last 4T. The period around 1920 had lots of unrest and the model predicts peak unrest in 1922. The model explains low levels of violence during the Depression by suppression of radicalization by moderates, who peaked in the mid 1930's.). These moderates were Lost radicals of the teens and early 1920's who had become disenchanted with radicalism. This might be why we avoided fascism last time.
Does this model interact with his/your inequality model? It doesn't appear to, as 20s and 60s saw rising inequality.
No it doesn't, as you correctly noted. Turchin has a version in which the propensity to radicalize is proportional in inequality. But he didn't try to fit it to data, perhaps for the very reason you noted.