Neil Howe: 'Civil War Is More Likely Than People Think'

[David Horn]

(07-22-2017, 08:17 AM)Mikebert Wrote: This seems overwrought. What we have today is polarization. Polarization is not the same thing as civil war. A common measure of polarization shows very high levels of polarization today and the first decade of the 20th century. What is does not show is high levels in 1860.  I would point out that the last time of high polarization was followed by a revolutionary situation in the late teens and early twenties, but no civil war. Instead the situation was resolved quickly by mass arrests and deportation, followed by immigration restriction.

Yet this did not prevent the fall of the capitalist elite regime in the early 1930's. Structural changes of the sort that often have required civil war or revolution happened, without their being a civil war.  It never ceases to amaze me that we here are aware of this, in fact S&H have given us a nomenclature (the period of interest was a 4T) and a way to actually forecast these eras, and yet do not see how the issues we face today could be resolved without a civil war, like last time.

I agree.  Even if there was the stomach for a civil war, I don't see us fighting a war of any kind where the lines of demarcation are as poorly defined as the urban-rural split that seems evident today.  Perhaps some political settlement could be devised where a few extremely Red states are allowed to leave the union, if it comes to that.  I wouldn't bet on it though.