Neil Howe: 'Civil War Is More Likely Than People Think'

[linus]

I read Neil Howe's WaPo op-ed from recent months, which didn't necessarily suggest he thought some kind of war was inevitable, but did say: well, hey, it happened repeatedly before.

I'm kind of still of the opinion that this Crisis is more like the Glorious Revolution (in a certain way) than any other, coming as it did after the Cycle that made England into Britain (much as I think the Depression/WWII made America a superpower). There was certainly violence abroad and in particular the colonies (King Phillips War and all that) but nothing like a total war in the UK.

I also think (having started but not yet completed Stephen Skowronek's "the Politics Presidents Make" - which should be of interest to any 4ters) that Donald Trump may be most like Andrew Johnson, a "wild card" president who succeeded a major, reconstructive liberal one and was unable to undo Lincoln's warrants for disruption and reordering. Trump is like the zombie Reaganite to Johnson's zombie Jacksonian (no wonder Bannon likes him). (The Trefousse bio of Johnson just dropped on my doorstep - am reading because precisely this; day off because f***ing hot out there.)

Re: violence: sadly, maybe more, I think, but of the kind we've seen and continue to: lone wolves, mass shootings, conspiracies involving small numbers of people acting out their crazy.