08-21-2017, 02:44 PM
(08-20-2017, 01:16 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:This is an established theory, to which I subscribe. The S&H concept of structural change during 4Ts neatly dovetails with the idea of sequential republics. Basically a 4T sees the death of the old republic and birth of the new.(08-19-2017, 03:03 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(08-18-2017, 01:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:(08-18-2017, 06:55 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Not only that any Reich formation would have to take place in Germany rather than the US or Russia. Otherwise using the "reich" label even for propaganda purposes becomes absurd.
As "noway" reminds us, "Reich" simply means "realm". As a remarkable coincidence, the German name for the country to the south and west is "Frankreich", even though France has largely been a Republic since 1792. The official name for Austria is Republik Österreich, even if Austria has not been a monarchy since 1918. The Weimar Republic heavily used the word "Reich" to describe itself.
I occasional bump into descriptions of eras in France following the naming convention. If one talks of the Third Republic or Second Empire, one is defining an era pretty well. In the United States one can talk of the colonial era, the Articles of Confederation and the Constitution breaking things up, but we've been under the Constitution for so much of our modern history that it isn't as convenient or pertinent.
If you understand the numbered reich convention that way, labeling alliances well away from Germany as reichs becomes way questionable.
I would actually argue that the US has maintained the constitution of 1789 through three successive republican systems. By and large my boyfriend* would organize US history as follows:
Colonial Period: 1607-1763
Revolution and Confederation: 1763-1789
First Republic: 1789-1865
Second Republic: 1866-1932
Third Republic: 1933-Present
*Note: He actually teaches history in this fashion, though he avoids using the term republic as I would.
I also see a correspondence between the eras and Turchin's secular cycles. These cycles typically feature a crisis period when the society starts to break down, which is then followed a resolution and the start of a new cycle. This resolution happens during 4Ts. Not all 4Ts do this (the Armada 4T did not for one), but it seems that in the modern era the secular cycle, republics and the saeculum all are roughly aligned.
I have submitted a paper on this and will discuss more when I find out what the reviewers have to say.