Threat from the DPRK (North Korea)

[Kinser79]

(09-26-2017, 06:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(09-19-2017, 10:13 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: That link is rather interesting.  However, it fails to take into account two very large factors.

1.  With nuclear weapons the DPRK would have a real deterrent against US involvement.

True, that is why DPRK is pursuing them.  I would so the same if I were them.

Quote:The ROK with its large industrial base, and high GDP would be prime targets for the DPRK to take over to prop up the regime.

This is true too, but it ignores the whole point of the link. Just because North Korean would like South Korean plunder doesn't mean they can win the war they would need to fight to get it.

If North Korea uses nukes against the South or Japan or US forces then our response would be genocidal.  China and Russia would do the same if their territory/sphere of interest were attacked with nukes. So they would protest vehemently against American genocide (and the collateral damage that falls on them), but there would be no WW III. We know that, they know that, Kim knows that. If Kim wants to fight it will start conventional. The war potential arrayed against him is enormous.  For him to win, it would have to be right away.  Hence an examination of the forces deployed right now, their kind, number and quality would be useful, which is what the article was for. It does not look like Kim could achieve a quick victory without using nukes, which then will result in total destruction of North Korea, including Kim, his government, his military, his family legacy and everything else he cares about. 

Totalitarian rulers like Kim do not preserve their power by taking foolish risks.  He's the third generation of Kims. They apparently know what they are doing and so he will take no foolish risks.

Mike you do realize that you are essentially making my argument for me right?  Kim is acting rationally for the conditions of the DPRK, however, unlike other nuclear powers the DPRK regularly threatens two non-nuclear powers which are allied to the US.  This isn't Pakistan and India bickering over some useless semi-arid mountain pass here, it is a nuclear arms possessing state threatening two non-nuclear arms possessing states.

That being said, if we want proliferation of nuclear arms I imagine Japan could get an H-bomb in about a year.  They already have natively a large base on which to build a program.