01-14-2018, 02:55 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2018, 03:10 PM by David Horn.)
(01-14-2018, 07:15 AM)Mikebert Wrote: 100 years ago we did not have an overvalued market. Last month, S&P500 valuation reached 1929 levels. The capitalist crisis appeared around 2006, a century after its first appearance in 1907. So if we get a crash which causes the economy to crater, they will be political demand for a 4T fix. Unlike in 1919, there still is a dominant generation in power, and so it is possible that this period can still map into a 4T. If not then it will end up as a second 2T.
I got here too, but not with your degree of analytical discipline. Mine was all gut, I'm afraid. I couldn't find a path that lead to a true resolution of conflicting views that were not fully in contrast or readily resolvable without a confluence of luck and timing. It still seems less than certain that a 4T resolution can be obtained, though DJT made it a lot more likely. If, as a nation, we were just floating along and playing to our two bases, there was little to trigger a clash that could lead anywhere. Now, there is, but is it properly focused and is it enough?
I'm still surprised by how little economics seems to play. The righteous anger is still reserved for the cultural issues, that can't be resolved through politics, and won't be resolved until the true believers pass from the scene. A 2T-like period might be all we can expect, though the underlying economic issues scream 4T at the top of their lungs. I suspect this won't get resolved while I'm still around.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.