The World Economy Looks a Bit Like It's the 1930s

[Ragnarök_62]

Dan\82 Wrote:To understand today’s global economy, look back 80 years.



Sorta...

Dan\82 Wrote: Just like in the 1930s, growth is being constrained by companies unwilling to spend

::Facepalm::   NO.  What really happened is a down ratcheting of  worker demand as such:

Way back in the 1980's, corporations started a process of financial engineering/offshoring/outsourcing/labor uniong busting  to reduce the cost of labor. After some time you get a positive feedback loop as follows :

Let C(x) = company(1), company(2), company(3)... company(x)
P(C(x)) = aggregate profits.
W(C(x)) = aggregate private sector wages.
T(C(x) + W(x)) tax receipts from private sector.

y=1
The feedback loop can be described as such:

1:  C(y) -> does any of the aforementioned financial engineering.
P(C(2)...C(x)) = P - cost saving derived from C(1)
{
W = W - more financial engineering for C(y+1)
T = T - more financial engineering
}
y = y +1
goto 1


So corporate profits go up over a certain time span ... until falling demand catches up at the time of reckoning and profits start falling in tandem with wages.  Of course this does not include major screwups like the black swan year of 2008. The black swan was when the banking system seized up from outright fraud and some unseen event exposed it.  Of course 2008 type stuff can feed into falling demand. The economy has gone nowhere for most folks because the feedback is still going on.

Dan\82 Wrote:falling inflation expectations

That's a symptom and a minor detail. The big detail is falling wages and debt serf nation. If your wages are falling and you're up to your eyeballs in debt, you ain't gonna buy much.  Add in aging population and that's more demand destruction. Middle aged folks don't need stuff beyond replacing broken stuff and perhaps more healthcare.

Dan\82 Wrote:and governments backing away from fiscal stimulus.

The US governments at most levels have huge debts. I'm sure MMT has some assistance, but it's not unlimited.

Dan\82 Wrote:The trigger for the current malaise was the financial crisis that left a hangover of debt and deleveraging amid tighter banking regulations that are exacerbating deflationary pressures.

Huh?  Why are there 120% LTV house loans and subprime autoloans then?

Dan\82 Wrote:It’s similar to the kind of shock that preceded the 1930s slump, according to an analysis by Morgan Stanley economists led by Hong Kong-based Chetan Ahya...

Sorta and sorta not. The demand destruction began in the 1980's and here it is 2016. That's 30 years of a clusterfuck.  Offshoring/outsourcing are new.  Henry Ford for example knew that demand for his stuff originated from wages.  Our loser MBA's did precisely the opposite. Here's hoping they all get replaced by an algo.  After all, it's not hard to do.  The algo can just read spreadsheets and use a number of function calls as such:

outsource(spreadsheet,true,false);
offshore(spreadsheet,true,false)
layoff(spreadsheet,true,false);
stockbuyback(spreadsheet,true,false);
lietoregulators(spreadsheet,true,false);
dressinsuit(spreadsheet,true);
enhanceshareholdervalue(spreadsheet,true,false);
saybuzzwords(true);

If one looks at those function calls, it should be easy to surmise that the C suite is the easiest cost to reduce.
Get a robot, program it with above algo, and dress the thing in a suit.  Next fire all the fuckwit MBA's and get real shareholder value.

Quote:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...an-stanley

Uh, why can't Bloomberg do a write up on which CEO's are the least cost effective so they can be shitcanned first?

It's been oh so long, but at last

* dumdum award for Corporate America