04-20-2018, 02:34 PM
(04-20-2018, 01:03 PM)Another Xer Wrote: Even though we are well into the 4T, defining it can be a hard thing. This isn't a new phenomenon, after all, in 1862 the Confederates thought they were the future. When thinking about how to interpret the current 4T I find it best to start at the ending. That seems counterintuitive, except that the ending may be the one thing we know. We can't even agree on when the 4T started (I tend to think Hurricane Katrina, give or take a couple years). But the one thing we know is this - the big winner of the 4T will be the Millenials.
We know this because a key component of the Generational Theory is that the future is shaped by the Hero generation coming of age. That's the Millenials. The patterns of behavior following the Greatest Generation (GI) are already being established. The Greatest Generation started becoming a force in electoral politics early in the Great Depression. All signs are pointing towards increased activism from a Millenial Generation of which, only 29% think the country is headed in the right direction (link below).
So where are the Millenials taking us? For starters, Millenials are only 55% white, so expect the future to accept much more diversity. According to studies, Millenials believe in education and place lower value on traditional roles of marriage and family. About 1/3 of Millenials say faith plays no part in their lives. Politically, 57% of Millenials view themselves as "Consistently or Mostly" Liberal while only 12% call themselves "Consistently or Mostly" Conservative. 27% approve of Trump's job performance.
Given where we currently are and the viewpoints of the Millenials, Trump and his supporters seem to have a very short window to change the opinions of the Millenials en masse. If they aren't able to accomplish that, it will likely be lights out for any effectiveness from the Trump Administration after the November 2018 elections. At which point, it is hard to imagine the Trump ideal winning the future.
https://impact.vice.com/en_us/article/gy...-than-ever
I disagree that whites becoming a smaller majority will necessarily cause society to accept more diversity. It may also result in whites feeling more ethnically threatened and thus consolidating along racial lines, reimposing institutionalized race discrimination against nonwhites. This tendency is already quite pronounced among younger Millenials.
In addition, most Millenials seem strongly in the antiimmigration camp for economic reasons. They also tend not to value individual rights very highly, and lean toward isolationism.
This is all bad news for libertarian leaning Republicans, but I'm not so sure it's bad news for Trump.