05-19-2018, 05:36 PM
(05-17-2018, 08:11 AM)Anthony Wrote: Since not only did 9/11 not cause the Culture Wars to wind down, but the Culture Wars have actually ramped up since then (Lawrence vs. Texas, Obergefell v. Hodges, "partial-birth abortion," the continuing drive to defund Planned Parenthood), I theorize that with 9/11 began a unique hybrid 3T-4T, which I expect will end with a financial catastrophe in most likely October 2019 (something I have been predicting for literally two decades), leaving us in a pure 4T, which could commence as early as this November, if "The Map" holds up and the Republicans get to 60 seats to Senate, or to 59 and the Republicans can induce Maine independent Angus King, who currently caucuses with the Democrats, to cross the aisle.
60 GOP seats this fall is a really tall order. Republicans have held 60 or more senate seatsjust twice in American history: 62 seats in 1869-71, and 61 seats in 1907-9. The last time they had 60+ percent was 1923-25. The most they have had since is 55, on several occasions, most recently 2005-7.
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Since 1980 the average number of Republican and Democratic senators has been the same at 49.6 each. Congressional elections generally go against the president's party. The generic ballot, presidential popularity and natural Republican geographical advantage* suggests that the most likely outcome from the election is a 0-3 seat pickup for Republicans, with the Republicans maintaining control, but falling far short of 60.
*Republicans tend to win sparsely populated states with a high ratio of senators to voters because such states are more rural.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divi...Senate.png