(05-24-2018, 03:25 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: It's good to see your comments on the forum, Nomad.
We are where we are, as I see it, because the wrong decisions have been made for too long. In the end, it is not about ideology. It is about what works best for the people. Right now people in the USA are polarized. Many people on the right and some on the left are dedicated to their ideology and don't see the real needs. Compromise has just not been possible. The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.
The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good. I hope it will not be a holocaust; I don't think it needs to be. But the issues like climate change and the lack of opportunities for many people will not wait. If those who want to take action can't break the stalemate and act on the real issues, and defeat the opposition, then the problems will just get worse and there will be no first turning. It can only come after some real action has been taken and the opponents to action have been defeated. Defeat for the stand pat opponents, the Republicans, will be best if it is defeat at the ballot box. But if it doesn't happen, bullets will fly, and the outcome may not be good. We do have a good track record of victory in 4Ts; the progressive side has always won the war and we have moved forward; not solving all the problems, but solving enough of them so that we can move forward as a nation and not fall into decline and decay. The left/right paradigm is definitely not a lie, but at bottom it is about solving real problems, not just about whose ideology wins. And it's in 4Ts that the victors are able to make real change and get things done, not in 1Ts. A first turning will just see continuation of what is started in the 4T. The way to get through the 4T and into a 1T, is to face the need for the battle and get involved.
4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon. It won't start until 2028 at the earliest, and even then, the first turning will still see more controversy and activism than the previous one did, along with more consensus than in the 4T. And then a second turning will follow in the late 2040s, bringing today's issues to a climax and fulfillment of purpose.
Thanks, this was a good post. Forgive, I am slightly ornery just now from being sick.
I do not think there has been a history of a 1st turning not happening. From the authors' perspective, the only thing ever skipped was a Hero archetype after the Civil War. O but wait... does that mean 1st turning High was skipped? I haven't been able to understand that one.
I say right/left paradigm is a lie because no matter what anyone thinks, BOTH sides in the Prophet archetype ONLY want their ideology to win. They never care if there is real progress. To say that isn't so is just untrue. We can think one side is the villain, but the authors don't say that at all. They wrote it isn't the ideology that's the problem but pigheaded people in general who have no facility to compromise.
^ sure, I have a hard time with that. I think about how one side when had almost full power was able to pass a healthcare bill and a FEW other things. But when you look at it, there really are many, many Americans who did not want that. For me or anyone to invalidate their view as "wrong" is simply to put on the Prophet hat and get ready to rumble. I think that is why things are not happening.
You said: The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.
In response to that, I really really get that.... and I too have been expecting much worse to come. However, when I put your above into my thoughts and really link up to the events that have already happened, I have to say there was a gauntlet already. I've named them several times and they fit the models laid out by the authors. It just has not been as extreme as I expected. Then I think if I was expecting such an extreme thing because of paying mind to people like Alex Jones or Rush Limbaugh (2 sides of the same blow-hard diatribe). Both of them boomers, both of them pandering to the boomer desire for a House Targaryen Fire and Blood scenario.
You say no victory celebrations and placid conformity until the victory has been won....... and while that does fit with a VJ-Day scenario where mass impregnations happened where the beginning of the boom could be denoted to even the specific day! But what about a softer reboot? Why does it have to be SO drastic? Not all turnings are the same. I am still holding onto 911+Financial Crisis=4th Turning of the 21st Century. But I may be wrong, it has happened before
You said: The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good.
I would like to hear more about this. Is there a model of this within the saeculum history? Like I said, I'm aware a Hero archetype was skipped after the American Civil War, but has there ever been a skipping of a whole cycle? Perhaps user MikeBert has information -- they had expanded on past cycles well.
You said: 4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon.
This is where I think it comes down to interpretation of the model. Nothing happens in one day. We do not simply wake up into a new turning. I don't think that can ever rarely happen. It does not become that suddenly there is compromise where there was not. Or suddenly Boomers die en masse and that solves things. It is all fluid. At this point we are debating between 5 or 10 years away. But I'd like to know exactly what indicators you base the 4th Turning on.
For me, the 2 main indicators from the authors are 1) a societal shift where outside institutions are transformed and the culture is dramatically different from what it was previously. 911 changed many, many things. Kids born after do not know you used to be able to wander in and out of the airport waiting for your family to arrive or leave. They don't know a time when torture of international prisoners or blank zones like Guantanamo was commonplace. They do not know a time when you can vanish in the middle of the night for being a Muslim and/or speaking your mind could be interpreted in a way that could bring you to jail for observation. We had several wars which transformed places like Iraq and forged new political friends or enemies. America became globally despised. Ties with other nations were ruined. On and on.
2) The same children do not/have not known an America where their parents or family were not (generally) struggling to make ends meet OR homeless OR having to move in with relatives OR not being able to exist on their own without family help OR generally.......... they do not know what it is like to NOT be in a Crisis. This same facet is an indicator of 4th Turning when the authors said wealth would evaporate at a moment's notice. Back in the late 80s, I recall specifically Tom Brokaw calling it "The Fleecing of America". So, it happens with both even-numbered turning - and much harsher in the 4th. I say again, do we truly realize how devastating the 2008 thing was? I was out of work for a long while. I struggled and had to rely on others. I know people who lost property (multiple properties) and this was unthinkable. People being forced to take roomates and live with cousins, those who lived somewhat "posh" lives on the California coast who became as vagrants wandering from one rental unit to the next with their families and ended up dying IN MONTANA or IDAHO. Does anyone remember the BED BUG crisis on the east coast and south in around 2012?? From the displaced thousands who were cast out and staying in motels?
All of this, and we are expecting more Crisis? All I can say is I hope you are wrong. WHEN does the upswing start? When we say "2028" what does that look like? Are people suddenly cooperating on that date? Where is the time for transition? If we say 2028, there will be ARTIST archetypes already starting families and in the workforce, Nomads will almost be out of the game in every respect. It seems really late to me.
I've said rump is an aberration. The neocon cloud cannot assume power. Why? Not because I said NO but because there just isn't more time for that nonsense. People are saying the whole calamity will culminate with Iran and mid-east / Persian war. I can buy that based on what I see in the news lately. But when I consider the saeculum model, there just isn't more time for that. If you think there is, please discuss what that looks like to you. What do you see being the last calamity(s) for this 4th Turning? People like Pelosi and Feinstein are being openly accused of being too old to seek another term. I see the changes coming already. Those kids in Florida -- Heroes and Artists (who are in the model supposed to be helpmates) are already of voting age and they are armed with networks and technology with one voice. They will not ALLOW the government to put them in harm's way over assault weapons coming into their schools anymore. Their voices can only be expanded upon to read a sea-change in MOOD. I view that mood as having already changed. It seems you are saying it can only change after the Crisis. Well, I am proposing maybe the Crisis has already come and went.