05-30-2018, 05:37 PM
(05-30-2018, 04:25 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: ...So what is Asimov's 'unpredictable event'? Having not read his Foundation Trilogy, I would have to guess some possible events:
1. a financial panic as in 1857, 1929, or 2008, when people suddenly realize that they have been investing in $@!+ instead of in something good
2. a war for profit that either fails to turn a profit (one loses a war for seizure of other countries' resources or control of other countries' consumer markets) or turns into a catastrophic defeat. Satan Hussein thought that his invasion of Kuwait would work well. An American President who believes that invading Cuba to graft it into America as a 51st state or take over the oilfields of Venezuela will quickly find how fleeting some old partnerships and alliances can be after such an act.
3. technological calamities such as Chernobyl because the project was done on the cheap, or perhaps robots initiating a proletarian revolution (Robots of the world, unite!... after a library program draws some conclusions from the Communist Manifesto and convinces smart robots that they are the true workers and humans are gross exploiters).
4. the rise of a demagogue who convinces enough people that his contradictory promises are achievable because someone else will pay. Donald Trump is the most demagogic politician who has ever gotten close to the Presidency of the United States, and his ideological contradictions form a disaster.
5. ecological disaster (like global warming) that threatens food sources and put masses of people with starvation or epidemics that cold weather once suppressed -- or political chaos due to inundation of valuable property and the economic infrastructure upon such property.
I have just suggested financial, military, technological, political, and ecological disasters as the absurd events that few could predict or were willing to recognize as such before they happened. Blunders seduce those people, especially those who should know better, who commit assets and personal credibility to them.
All good points. I think the axis of evil, neoconservatism/neoliberalism will to something along the lines of
this. The article was written some time ago so folks can see if it's withstood the test of time. Anything that's unsustainable will at some point, stop.
---Value Added 