07-12-2018, 02:15 PM
(05-19-2018, 07:33 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:(05-19-2018, 05:36 PM)Mikebert Wrote:(05-17-2018, 08:11 AM)Anthony Wrote: Since not only did 9/11 not cause the Culture Wars to wind down, but the Culture Wars have actually ramped up since then (Lawrence vs. Texas, Obergefell v. Hodges, "partial-birth abortion," the continuing drive to defund Planned Parenthood), I theorize that with 9/11 began a unique hybrid 3T-4T, which I expect will end with a financial catastrophe in most likely October 2019 (something I have been predicting for literally two decades), leaving us in a pure 4T, which could commence as early as this November, if "The Map" holds up and the Republicans get to 60 seats to Senate, or to 59 and the Republicans can induce Maine independent Angus King, who currently caucuses with the Democrats, to cross the aisle.
60 GOP seats this fall is a really tall order. Republicans have held 60 or more senate seatsjust twice in American history: 62 seats in 1869-71, and 61 seats in 1907-9. The last time they had 60+ percent was 1923-25. The most they have had since is 55, on several occasions, most recently 2005-7.
But it seemed eminently possible going into the 2016 election. Of course Donald Trump has been a horrible President, and the idea that his Party could pick up most of the Senate seats of incumbent Democrats (Stabenow in Michigan, Baldwin in Wisconsin, Casey in Pennsylvania, Brown in Ohio, Nelson in Florida, Donnelly in Indiana, McCaskill in Missouri, Heitkamp in North Dakota, and Tester in Montana) and the one Democratic seat that now involves an appointed Senator (Smith in Minnesota; appointed pols are usually vulnerable) in states that he won in 2016. Having won eight such seats and making gains in the House, the Republicans would have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and the Republican Party could truly make America great again -- in human suffering in a country in which monopolists get control of pricing, welfare disappears (unless you call crony capitalism 'welfare'), wages plummet, and management can get away with brutality just short of the type that exists with concentration camps. If you still believe Rush Limbaugh -- that is all wonderful.
At least if one is young one who has some good work habits could go to a country that still has opportunity and prosperity for more than a few, learn the local language, and race ahead of Americans who stay in the Corporate States of America... which America might as well be called in such a scenario. People old and broke, like me? There would be little to live for.
But the Republicans have gone too far to the Right while the demographics are going Left... and that creates its own political instability. Welcome to the Fourth Turning, this time in earnest.
Quote:Since 1980 the average number of Republican and Democratic senators has been the same at 49.6 each. Congressional elections generally go against the president's party. The generic ballot, presidential popularity and natural Republican geographical advantage* suggests that the most likely outcome from the election is a 0-3 seat pickup for Republicans, with the Republicans maintaining control, but falling far short of 60.
*Republicans tend to win sparsely populated states with a high ratio of senators to voters because such states are more rural.
We have an agonizing five and a half months to watch history unfold in America. We all have our hopes and fears. For me this could be a matter of life or death. It is that serious. America could become the nightmare of a repressive, hierarchical, and inequitable social order; with a heritage of militarism unusually severe for a democracy and great resources under command of people of limitless greed and cruelty, America could become the greatest nightmare that the world has ever known. Sure, it would not be as morally objectionable as Hitler's demonic Third Reich or Stalin's hellish Soviet Union... maybe the Germany of Wilhelm II or Italy under Mussolini, only with nuclear weapons in great quantity.
There is at least one more Democratic Senator in a state won by Trump: Manchin of West Virginia.
He is leading in the polls, as is Brown, Baldwin and Tester. The most vulnerable of them seem to be Donnelly, McCaskill, Nelson and Heitkamp. It's certainly possible that in a blue wave year the Democrats could hold all of them. The gun control movement could boost Nelson in Florida. But we'll see. Republicans are trailing in senate polls in Nevada and Arizona right now, where Trump's cruel attacks on hispanic immigrants are arousing opposition. Another Republican seat in AZ is inactive now; another election could happen there soon. Beto is about 5 points behind Cruz in heavily-hispanic Texas. The Republican seat in Tennessee could be vulnerable. Democratic Senate control by one vote is necessary to have a chance to keep Trump from appointing any more right-wing extremists to the Court.
The House is a tossup. It appears that whichever Party gains control, it will be a close margin.
I agree with Brower's assessment of Republican control if it continues much past 2020. Until then, the rising blue wave could still have a chance of stopping the slide. Anthony is an aspiring prophet, as I claim to be, and he says an economic meltdown in Oct 2019 could make this 4T a pure one. I have said that the next recession, which I think I agree with him on the date, will not be as severe as the one in 2008. I say we were in 3T until that one in 2008, and in 4T since; but that this 4T is similar to the one that started in 1850, which the authors thought was anomalous enough to call it a 3T and shorten the 4T to 5 years in 1860-65. So even though I say the years from 2001-2008 were 3T, and since 2008 is 4T, there's enough reason to compare the situation of the 2010s to the "anomalous" 1850s.
Note that I predicted the great recession of 2008 decades in advance, including in the videos that I assume you have all seen, and it did happen, and to the month that I predicted on the T4T forum. I also predicted it would be the start date of the 4T, which is still not agreed to by all, but is still agreed to by the author of turnings, Neil Howe.