(07-20-2018, 03:11 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:(07-19-2018, 01:25 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Me -- if you look at the 1st 2 Crises Wars, they were both civil wars (yes the Revolution was a civil war. We think of it as a war with England bcuz we have been these 2 separate countries for so long but at the time it was a civil war, with Americans wanting to bcome a separate nation vs Tories who wanted to remain with England ) lt was only the last Crisis War where we fought an external threat (Hitler) which makes me wonder if that was an anomaly, & the next Crisis will be another civil war. I see alot of pisspot dictators around the globe, but nothing really comparable to Hitler as far as being a global threat goes. Evil maybe, but a global threat? Not so much. OTOH, wtr to the Mideast, esp considering some of these Congresscritters consider themselves entitled to the keys to the 1000 Yr Kingdom, & considering we already got troops in lraq & Afghanistan, l can see us getting involved in an expanded all out hot war over oil or some other flimsy pretext. I can also see us being the aggressor in such a war.
Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars.
Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?
Eric--I would call the Revolution an external threat war. The military forces against the rebels were almost entirely gathered by the British, who had to invade. The Tories may have left the new country or kept silent; they weren't fighting as far as I know.
The previous war was a mixture, but it was originally the great rebellion civil war during the 2T. The Glorious Revolution gave one side the victory. But then it was William of Orange vs. Louis XIV. There were people on both sides in the colonies, I think.
The previous crisis war was short and comparatively easy and mild: the defeat of the external threat from the Spanish Armada. The previous one to that was a prolonged dynastic civil war of the roses.
-- Eric you are a trip. You call the Revolution an external threat war bcuz the Brits had to invade. Then you refer to the previous Crises- The War of the Roses, Spanish Armada, Wm of Orange.. that's all English shit. What does any of it have to do with the United States? The reason l call the Revolution our 1st Crisis War is bcuz it was the 1st one where the United States is a separate entity, or @ least attempting to bcome one severing political ties with England. The Brits did not have to invade btw. Not only did they had troops over here, they were forcing ppl here to house them. That's what the 3rd Amendment ( no quartering of soldiers) is all about. Mass was under martial law since the early 1770s, ie before 1776. Also Tories did fight for England in the Revolution. The battle of the Cowpers, for instance, in which Dan Morgan was able to turn the tide of the war in the South towards the US, was fought against Tory troops. There were a few Brit officers running the (shit)show, but the bulk of the troops there were Tories
Eric--the crisis war in this 4T might be smaller, because war is getting obsolete, and our place in the larger 500-year cycle is basically positive. The external threats are smaller now than in the past 4T, as you say. But Russia is likely to start a war around the 2020/2021 boundary, in which the USA is not involved directly. But Russia is an evil and large threat now to our allies, so there could be an external war with Russia by 2025. Or it could be a response to the continuing mid-east terrorist threats.
We could also have a small civil war, if the Left is in charge of America by 2025 and institutes reforms such as gun control, court packing and higher taxes. The Right-wing in this country feels entitled to rule, so I consider a right-wing rebellion like that of the civil war to be a likely event long about 2025, with smaller outbursts possible before then if the Left gains enough power to put in these reforms. If the right-wing stays in charge, I expect secession movements in blue states and/or portions of blue states. I don't know if they could succeed, but I would expect a leftist violent revolution in the USA to be crushed unless it is accompanied by a virtual coup against Trump or a Trumpist tyrant within the government itself.
The most likely scenario I see, therefore, is small wars both domestic and foreign in the middle to late 2020s.
A lot more of us are pacifists since the sixties, but that did not stop the Bush presidents from destroying the Vietnam Syndrome and sending thousands of troops abroad to die in oil wars. If the Left is in charge in the mid-2020s though, I would expect the threat to come from abroad and from domestic rebels rather than the war to be of the USA's own making. The peace movement may also rev up too if there's another war or two in the 2020s.
-- do you have charts on all this or are you just speculating?
This is mostly from my new book, which is my interpretation of the various configurations in the sky coming up. It's based of course also on what I know about the USA as well as my knowledge of generation cycles and other cycles.
The English saecula are mentioned because the T4T authors covered those cycles. The basic fourthturning site explains all that.
http://www.lifecourse.com/about/method/t...nings.html
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-- ok gotcha. Actually after reading your post again the English saecula answered 1 of my questions. The War of Roses was a civil war, while the Spanish Armada & Wm of Orange & Louis XlV were external threats. So we have an internal conflict followed by 2 external threats. Next up is the Revolution, which started out as an internal conflict (rebels breaking away from the Mother Country) but morphed into an external threat (4 the Brits, not us) once France got involved. Infact it can be argued that the reason a motley crew of militiamen (which is what the Continentals basically were) defeated the baddest military in the (18th century ) world is bcuz the French were keeping them busy elsewhere around the globe. Conversely our Crises were 2 internal (Revolution, Civil War) followed by an external threat (WW2) So it would appear that there isn't a pattern to these Crises Wars. Or maybe a reverse pattern- this Crisis could start out as some kind of Mideast war (external) but then morph into an internal conflict as current civil unrest ramps up into a civil war. Somebody mentioned a bloodless Reform Crisis in England during the 19th century. Well, except the Brits were fighting all kinds of wars during the 19th century from Napoleon to the Crimea to India to Afghanistan, to the Boer War in South Africa. I don't know how many of these wars were fought during a 4T, but l do see a clear paralell today wrt this country: fighting some stupid hot Mideast war while there's civil unrest @ home. I like David's idea about cyberwars (well not really, but y'all know what l mean) hey, use every tool @ your disposal & this being the 21st century & all.. throw in some nutjob with a vial of anthrax & this Crises should get interesting, esp if Yellowstone blows
my 2 yr old Niece/yr old Nephew 2020