09-11-2018, 06:26 PM
(09-11-2018, 01:29 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(09-10-2018, 09:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Waiting for the right candidate, is not a regeneracy. Expecting perfection, and not uniting for change, is not a regeneracy. One election victory, followed by a winning candidate who is not supported, and abandoned by cynical people staying home in elections, is not a regeneracy. Waiting for others to act, will not bring the wave. A young generation that stays home during midterms is not a regeneracy. Millennials can discover their collective power and save democracy; it's their destiny as a civic generation. And prophets and prophet cuspers like Obama to back them up and help lead them is their destiny. It's up to all of us to bring it, and it's happening.
A regeneracy is a united county pushing new and militant values. Fourth Turnings are generally marked by a Pearl Harbor, a Fort Sumter, a Lexington Green. I do not anticipate similar all out violence to resolve the red - blue culture difference. Second Turnings are not violent, but are marked by an extremely emotional moment associated with new values. I am not seeing an escalation in the Spiral of Violence. I am especially not seeing the country united, and not even Trump's blatant failure will make the red base abandon their values. Not yet. If an extreme blue partisan tried to lead without incorporating the middle of the country, he would still flip the see saw, pass power back to the reds.
We need fanatics. We need progressives committed to the new values early. We need people like Thomas Paine or the abolitionists. There ought to be people expressing ideas ahead of the idea's acceptance. There are.
But a S&H theorist has to keep hold of the evidence. Regeneracy has not happened yet, nor are we heading in that direction. The country is not united behind new values. We seem to be heading towards a war of ideas, not a literal war. We are certainly not in an actual war.
You should not let your fanaticism blind you to reality, make a joke out of the theory's view of history.
Well, Fort Sumter divided the country rather drastically. Lexington divided the country between tories and rebels. Pearl Harbor was not the start of a crisis, and neither was Ft. Sumter for that matter, but were crisis climax catalysts. From 1929 to 1941 the country was also divided between FDR supporters and haters, and later between war hawks and isolationists. No, a 4T does NOT mean a united country. It means a country picking sides. And the examples you chose illustrate that a regeneracy is not necessarily brought about by a president's actions, but also by rebels' actions.
The regeneracy is definitely happening, and it is the resistance to Trump on many fronts. That is definitely worth stressing and emphasizing now, and talking up. WE ARE RISING UP! like a phoenix from the fire! A blue gray champion president and many other gray champions will need to take up the fight, with quite a bit more alacrity than Obama did in office. But Obama is now helping to lead the charge even before a gray champion president is chosen. As Matt Post said about Nov.2018, "we can make this a turning point for our country." That's it, and the gun control advocates will be leading the charge (among others of course, but they are the most articulate so far, besides Obama).
Second Turnings contain a lot of violence, both domestic and foreign, but the 4T scale can be higher. My prediction is well-known by now, that the most likely violence is a right-wing rebel uprising against a left-wing takeover of the US government, precipitating such actions as tax increases and gun controls. I also don't discount further troubles with terrorists or Russia abroad. The year 2025 (up to Jan.2026) will be the time of decision and outbreak. I don't anticipate, though, that the rebellion will be anywhere near as effective as their Confederate forebears. It doesn't have to happen, of course. I hope it doesn't. But the track record of 4Ts is not good, so no-one should be complacent about it, or about the level of division that exists in our country, nor how hard it will be to bridge or quell it.
