Neo-nationalism, Identitarians and the Alt-Right

[Eric the Green]

(10-29-2018, 11:36 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(10-29-2018, 10:04 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:

Teejay Wrote:Although given the Middle East has just started it's Fourth Turning which is predicted to one hell of a battle between Islamists and Secularists. A possible final battle of the 'War on Terror' or more appropriately the 'War on Islamism' will probably occur during this Fourth Turning or in the first half of the First Turning. Islamists who are Islamic identarians could be subject to this McCarthyite purge as well.

I see it differently. The Middle East might have had its 4T in the 1960s, with the rise of nationalistic strongmen like Saddam, Qaddafi, etc. Then the 2000s, with al-Qaeda reaching peak popularity, look like a 2T since we know religion is most potent during an awakening. So the Middle East might have a 3T right now, which would explain the fragmentation of power and the existence of fallen states like Libya or Yemen.

IMHO Islamists are not equivalents of the alt-right, but of American boomer Jesus freaks or missionary "social purity movements" of the early 20th century. Purging Islamists as if they were identitarians would however be a good step, but the Western Left is chronically incapable of being opposed to anything concocted by brown people.

I have another perspective.  Both the capitalist-democratic-colonial powers and the communists treated the locals in the Middle East like trash.  They were more interested in cheap oil for their own people than improving the lot of the locals. When it came time to oppose the establishment, both the capitalists and the communists had discredited themselves, leaving them clinging extra hard to the old Islamic Agricultural Age value systems the only option.  

Alas the old systems are autocratic, leaving strongmen in charge.  Right now there is no path for improvement.  The Islamists are but one faction building on local alliances based on a religious sects, tribal identity or a political party.  It seems to matter little which, as all result in corrupt strongmen with strong self interest defeating any attempt at checks and balances.  As long as they give loyalty to these things, the idea of tolerance and workings of democracy are alien to them.  They will go in circles indefinitely.

The West might favor democracy, often thinking the transition is far easier than it turns out to be, but this has always been rough to implement.  The people of the Middle East don't trust it, and you end up with corrupt strongman government.  It seems to always take a century or three to switch over to true democratic norms.  We ourselves have our elite robber barons to take care of.  It is hard to feel the Middle Eastern people are not doing as well as expected when every other attempt to transition stumbles and fails for centuries.  Even Anglo America had to fight wars for centuries, faced many many crises, to get as far as we have.  We're not there yet.

Progress is being made.  Alas it is by the people with the most modern values giving up and migrating to western countries where democratic values have already taken hold.  Alas, they are running into prejudice from our own conservatives.  Did I mention that we aren't all the way transitioned ourselves?

It seems you are correct on all that.

Given that Islamism started in the Middle East in the 1970s, especially in Iran, I don't think the 2000s were their 2T. Al Qaeda is not really a popular movement. They may be liked by many, but it is still essentially a small terrorist group. So too is its offshoot the Islamic State. So a climax of Islamic Fundamentalism, as begun at the same time as the American Christian variety, is climaxing now in this 4T, with the two fundie wings still poised for more conflict. I assume the next American war cycle, which arrives in 2025, may settle a lot of scores in that regard. I don't think there are enough Islamists in America to be an occasion for a McCarthy-style purge though. Such a purge could happen, but it's a good question as to what it would look like or who is purged. It depends on how quickly a right-wing reaction develops to center/left wing power, assuming such left power happens in the course of the 2020s. I would expect such a new McCarthyism, or Alien/Sedition Act, or post Reconstruction Jim Crow Age of Hate KKK era would develop sometime in the 2030s, perhaps early in the decade around 2033.

A case could be made for Islamists movements in the 1990s in Saudi Arabia.
https://www.britannica.com/place/Saudi-A...-aftermath

In this newsweek article, 5 phases of Islamism are described.

1. the movements of the 1970s brought early Islamism to a peak, triggered by the Arab-Isreali war of 1973, the first theocratic state in Iran in 1979, and seizure of the grand mosque in Mecca soon thereafter, which "led regimes across the region to redefine modernization in more Islamic terms. Shaken to the core, Saudi Arabia’s monarchy ceded greater ground to Wahhabi clerics. Even strictly secular regimes reacted. Under President Anwar Sadat, Egypt altered its constitution to ensure that Sharia, or Islamic law, was the basis of all legislation."

2. The 1980s "witnessed the rise of suicide extremism and mass violence. The trend started among Shiites, for whom martyrdom has been a central tenet for fourteen centuries. It soon spread to Sunni militants, for whom it was not a long-held belief. The violent tactics by religious extremists began to redefine modern warfare." Hezbollah and its bombing of US Marines, Islamic Jihad, Hamas, the Palestinian Intifada, and the jihad-led war in Afghanistan against the Soviets, were highlights.

3. The 1990s saw "the rise of Islamist political parties. The emphasis shifted from the bullet to the ballot—or a combination of the two." Movements in Algeria began the trend, spurred by the democratic movements of the late 1980s and early 1990s worldwide. " In 1992, after a decade underground, Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah led the Shiite party into Lebanese elections. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood ran for parliament in 1995, after a decade of competing under cover of other political parties. Jordan’s Islamic Action Front became the largest opposition party elected to parliament. From scenic Morocco and sleepy Kuwait to teeming Yemen, Islamist parties captured the imagination of many voters."

4. In the 2000s, the Al Qaeda attacks shifted Islamism. "The fourth phase began after Al-Qaeda’s attacks on September 11, 2001, which were as traumatic for many Muslims half a world away as for Americans who witnessed attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. In the Arab world, hundreds of millions found themselves tainted by a man and a movement they neither knew nor supported. Muslims were also increasingly victimized, as extremists expanded their suicide attacks from Morocco on the Atlantic to Saudi Arabia on the Persian Gulf. Almost 3,000 people died on 9/11, but militants killed more than 10,000 of their brethren in suicide bombings and other attacks over the next decade. The extremist strategy backfired. In Arab eyes, the many forms of militancy proved costly, unproductive, and ultimately unappealing.....During the first decade of the 21st century, the Arab response was a kind of counter-jihad—a rejection of extremist movements and tactics to achieve political goals. The response took many tangible forms. But among the most imaginative were the Islamist debates on university campuses, within civil society, among exiles, and even among jailed Islamists about the most effective means of change...."

5. "In 2011, the raucous Arab uprisings triggered a fifth phase. It began after unprecedented displays of peaceful civil disobedience in the world’s most volatile region. Within a single year, a rippling wave of uprisings opened political space for Muslim movements that had struggled for decades—in one case, almost a century—just to get in the door." See the article for its manifold expression in our times. 

https://www.newsweek.com/short-history-islamism-298235