Wheels within wheels.

[Mikebert]

(12-06-2018, 11:14 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-05-2018, 03:55 PM)Mikebert Wrote: ... Although not complete the change in direction was enough for FDR to add to his Congressional majority in 1934 and 1936 so that it became so large that even after he was hammered worse than Obama in 2010 in 1938, Democrats still held a majority. His victory in 1940 and his decade-long Congressional majority made FDR the unquestioned commander in chief going into WW II. The result was a degree of political domination for 48 years after 1932 than was similar to what Lincoln had achieved for his party.

This is not and most probably will not happen this 4T.  Add the unbridled effect of money due to Citizens United, and a rising aspirational majority in the larger cities, stalemate seems most likely.  Yet things are degrading though neither side seems to have a solution that will swing the supporters of the other side to their cause.  Assuming I'm right here, what will lit take to break the stalemate, and what will it look like when it does?  The aspiring urbanites are not going to accept a retrenchment, and the rural opposition seems to be in the foulest mood I've seen.  

Assuming the T4T theory still applies, then we should be a lot further along the crisis path than we are.

I completely agree.  We actually did what FDR did with the gold standard after the financial crisis. And the effect was similar, we did not get deflation and a weak recovery began. Obama did not get the benefit of favorable comparisons that FDR got. What matters in politics is the trend. In 1934, unemployment was *very* high, but it was 3 points lower than it had been when FDR took office.  In 2010 unemployed was more than a point *higher* than it had been when Obama took office.

The 2010 narrative was Democrats addressed the crisis with a stimulus they said would prevent unemployment from reaching 10% (the level it was at in 2010) and spend most of their time passing this bad health plan.  FDR waited until AFTER the 1934 elections had locked him into power to pass Social Security. Once they had power, Republicans focused on trying to bring the economy down with stunts like the 2011 budget showdown.