12-08-2018, 12:24 PM
(12-08-2018, 10:59 AM)David Horn Wrote:(12-08-2018, 09:27 AM)Mikebert Wrote:(12-06-2018, 11:14 AM)David Horn Wrote: Assuming the T4T theory still applies, then we should be a lot further along the crisis path than we are.
I completely agree. We actually did what FDR did with the gold standard after the financial crisis. And the effect was similar, we did not get deflation and a weak recovery began. Obama did not get the benefit of favorable comparisons that FDR got. What matters in politics is the trend. In 1934, unemployment was *very* high, but it was 3 points lower than it had been when FDR took office. In 2010 unemployed was more than a point *higher* than it had been when Obama took office.
The 2010 narrative was Democrats addressed the crisis with a stimulus they said would prevent unemployment from reaching 10% (the level it was at in 2010) and spend most of their time passing this bad health plan. FDR waited until AFTER the 1934 elections had locked him into power to pass Social Security. Once they had power, Republicans focused on trying to bring the economy down with stunts like the 2011 budget showdown.
Perhaps we've seen the end of Democrats acting on pure motives that lead nowhere … or not. There seems to be a defect in the party's DNA that causes the party collectively toward goals that simply can't be achieved without overwhelming support among the people. Instead, they count votes in the Senate, votes in the House -- then they get blindsided, again and again.
The political math is as obvious to the Other Side as well. Get enough supporters in the right places, and you will prevail. Such apples whether one operates on the noblest of principles or if one is a fascist pig. Democrats need to persuade people that their best interests are in an America that does well for all and not for a selfish and arrogant few. The selfish and arrogant few will always find ways to convince people -- through grinding poverty. Let us strip you of your union protection, and instead of paying union dues you will be able to put some presents under the tree and a turkey in the oven. Then after the Christmas cheer is over, the plutocrats and executives tighten the economic strictures even harder and compel people to compete for the privilege of survival. After all, no human suffering in the name of elite indulgence and power can ever be in excess.
Quote:None of this would be all that important if the stakes were not as high as they are. We have inequality approaching the highest ever recorded in the US, global warming now emerging as a current, rather than a future, problem, while all this occurs under ever greater autocracy both here and abroad. The opposing forces are in disarray. It's hard to see how this gets reconciled.
In the last Crisis Era the alternatives were freedom or fascism. In this one the alternatives may be much the same,
the difference being that the fascists aren't so easy to transform into ludicrous caricatures like "Adenoid Hynkel".
Quote:I would prefer to be optimistic, and believe that the public is awakening from a trance. I just can't at the moment. Gains have been made, but they are small in comparison to the collective mass of the problems that need addressing. The one interesting side note: the stock market is finally beginning to wobble. Mike, this is more your domain: will we finally see the Bear that's been hiding in the shadows for so long?
We have solved little in this Crisis Era. We will need radical reforms, and many fear that such reforms will mean that their beloved (white) daughter might start dating some black fellow and bear black children who will disgrace the family. The Right knows well how to play to primal fears. What it cannot do is to create anything other than an impoverished society in economics and creativity.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.