12-09-2018, 05:47 PM
I am increasingly of the opinion that the S&H theory is probably wrong. 27 years ago they wrote in Generations about the test of the theory. They said that the next few years or a decade would tell little, but in thirty years we should know. In the time I have been at one of the T4T sites several dates for a 4T start have been floated, 2001, 2005, 2008, and I will now add 2016. I spent a long time identifying a handful of markers for progress though the cycle. Based on these markers I eliminated 2001 as a candidate in 2012, when Obama won a second term.
One of the things that happens in a social moment turning is a critical election that signals a shift towards on or another party. In 2001 there was an opportunity to establish Republican ascendency for the next generation. Initial it looked like this was happening. Republicans passed a tax cut, started a war and won the 2002 election (which is unusual). They then did the same thing again, passing another tax cut, starting another war and winning the 2004 election. They were riding high, and then they gave all their gains back in 2006 and 2008. After Obamas victory in 2012 that ended any chance for Bush's victory in 2000 to have started anything.
Now it was Democrats turn. After winning big in 2006 and 2008, Democratic were crushed in 2010 losing the House. They won the 2012 election but then lost the Senate in 2014. Finally, they lost in 2016 against an inferior candidate. Just as the final nail in the coffin for a 4T start under Bush came with Obama's reelection, the same will be true for Democrats if Trump wins in 2020.
This pushes the next most likely 4T start to 2016, 32 years after the 3T start in 1984. This essentially invalidates the theory.
Consider, it has been ten years since 2008 and 17 years past 2001. In all three American 4Ts it was crystal-clear than there had been huge, radical changes 10 (and especially 17) years into the 4T. This alone makes anything other than a 2016 start sketchy, and that date invalidates the theory by the too-long 3T.
One of the things that happens in a social moment turning is a critical election that signals a shift towards on or another party. In 2001 there was an opportunity to establish Republican ascendency for the next generation. Initial it looked like this was happening. Republicans passed a tax cut, started a war and won the 2002 election (which is unusual). They then did the same thing again, passing another tax cut, starting another war and winning the 2004 election. They were riding high, and then they gave all their gains back in 2006 and 2008. After Obamas victory in 2012 that ended any chance for Bush's victory in 2000 to have started anything.
Now it was Democrats turn. After winning big in 2006 and 2008, Democratic were crushed in 2010 losing the House. They won the 2012 election but then lost the Senate in 2014. Finally, they lost in 2016 against an inferior candidate. Just as the final nail in the coffin for a 4T start under Bush came with Obama's reelection, the same will be true for Democrats if Trump wins in 2020.
This pushes the next most likely 4T start to 2016, 32 years after the 3T start in 1984. This essentially invalidates the theory.
Consider, it has been ten years since 2008 and 17 years past 2001. In all three American 4Ts it was crystal-clear than there had been huge, radical changes 10 (and especially 17) years into the 4T. This alone makes anything other than a 2016 start sketchy, and that date invalidates the theory by the too-long 3T.