Wheels within wheels.

[Eric the Green]

(12-11-2018, 11:27 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-10-2018, 11:24 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: It may be that one political party does not establish dominance in this 4T. But I still think that may very well happen. The Republicans have gone so far off the deep edge that it is destined to fall into impotence and maybe even disappear in the next decade. Again, since the 1850s were part of the civil war 4T, one would have thought the Democrats had not been dislodged over 2/3 of the way through the turning. You might have said then, oh well, the generations theory (sans anomaly) is in error. The same is true with the Republicans today, who represent the same folks that the Democrats represented in 1854, and who have been dominant throughout the 2010s, with the Democrats holding none or at most only one branch of the federal government and very few of the states.

Barring a repeat of the ACW, why is today's parallel with the 1850s a potential positive. For that matter, why would a 2nd ACW be a net positive, even if the nation survived as an open and vital democracy? At the moment, we're still the hegemon, but a brutal internal war would eliminate that immediately -- and not to our benefit. China is waiting for us to stumble, and the stumblebum in charge is doing all he can to oblige them. An American internecine war would be more than they could hope for.

Those are good points. Another civil war would not do us well. However, our 4T is predominantly a cold civil war, with some problems with terrorists thrown in. Our track record at avoiding violence in 4Ts is not good, to say the least. We may have graduated to better behavior in our new age, but maybe not. So I expect more violence in the 2020s. It depends on the scale of it whether or not we emerge from it positively, and of course it depends on which side wins most of all. The ACW 4T was the usual victory for the progressive side, and out of it the USA emerged more powerful and more united in the long run. A full scale civil war today might not have that result, though. It's quite possible that other countries might intervene and interfere in a civil war in the 2020s. I've thought of that possibility myself too. It almost happened in 1862 as well.

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Eric the Green Wrote:It is certainly not true that authoritarianism is diminishing during a 4T, if you look at fascist and Nazi ascendancy late into the previous one, and the Dred Scott decision far into the civil war 4T, and the power of the Dixie aristocracy then and its dominance of politics right up to Lincoln's election, with similar authoritarian rule in Europe, and King George III's reign in the USA up until 1781. The 4T is not a condition of unity, with reformers in power; it is a condition of battle between two sides or factions, which in previous anglo-american 4Ts has eventually been won by the more-progressive side near the end.


We're right on schedule. The takeover of the USA by such an unqualified, destructive, incompetent, authoritarian fool is itself enough to label our times as a crisis. Our nation as we knew it is under severe threat today just from that.

It's not just Trump. Look at the neo-Fascist activities in Europe, then look at the same activities in Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina, to name the most obvious few. Today's tools of repression are infinitely better than the tools of the mid-20th century. A Viktor Orban has had little trouble undoing the nascent democracy in Hungary, and doing it without firing a shot. Duterte in the Philippines, Erdogan in Turkey and now Bolsonaro in Brazil are just the leading edge of a movement that will grow even faster if the Orange One continues in office.

Indeed I am seeing those things as well.

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Eric the Green Wrote:My cosmic crystal ball says the 2050s will be a relaxed, energetic and optimistic period, with lots of innovation and advances in communication. It will be an awakening era following a revolutionary time in which people will be enjoying the liberation which it achieved. That of course will depend on a positive outcome to this 4T, in which progressive folks must overcome and transform the built-in advantages for stagnant conservative rule in the USA by 2028-29. There will be no awakening in the USA if a positive outcome to this 4T is not achieved. Such an awakening will happen elsewhere instead in that case. Instead we will be a banana republic, in a condition akin to that of Dixie in the 1890s, with increasing oppression and poverty, without any northern half of ourselves to power us into an eventual partial recovery after the 1960s. Come to think of it, a declining USA may be better for the climate, as other nations take the needed steps to address the issue and the declining USA produces less CO2 because of its stagnant economy.

The 2050s will be addressing the AGW issue head on. Assuming no other hangover occurs, it will still be a trying time worldwide. I admire your optimism, but fail to find any reason to share it.

I'm not sure I'm so optimistic, if I don't see the USA as being able to experience a Second Turning Awakening if we don't emerge from the 2020s with a progressive victory and new consensus. My main point is that we cannot wait for the 2050s. AGW and all the current problems must be addressed in THIS turning, or we won't be ABLE to address them in the future. That's not to deny that problems like AGW won't still need further attention and mitigation in the future as well. CO2 will be up there a while and more global warming is baked in. But we must turn around the trajectory in this 4T, and remove the 40-year block to all progress. This will be tough, so optimism alone won't be enough. We can't underestimate the task that lies ahead of us in the next 10 years, nor just put it off until a 2T that never comes. I always said back on the old forum that this 4T would be a literal winter, meaning climate change will be upon us as the crucial issue of the 4T, and so it is.

Of course, although I happen to see the 2050s as pretty smooth, euphoric and cheerful, just looking at the cycles, things will get stormier in the 2060s and 70s as we move into 3T with another 4T looming. And that cheerful 2T will also depend on whether we emerge from the preceding revolutionary era of the early 2T in the late 2040s in a positive way. Positive times are ahead of us IF we do the right things. If we don't, then we can't expect that outcome.