Wheels within wheels.

[David Horn]

(12-11-2018, 01:08 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm not sure I'm so optimistic, if I don't see the USA as being able to experience a Second Turning Awakening if we don't emerge from the 2020s with a progressive victory and new consensus. My main point is that we cannot wait for the 2050s. AGW and all the current problems must be addressed in THIS turning, or we won't be ABLE to address them in the future. That's not to deny that problems like AGW won't still need further attention and mitigation in the future as well. CO2 will be up there a while and more global warming is baked in. But we must turn around the trajectory in this 4T, and remove the 40-year block to all progress. This will be tough, so optimism alone won't be enough. We can't underestimate the task that lies ahead of us in the next 10 years, nor just put it off until a 2T that never comes. I always said back on the old forum that this 4T would be a literal winter, meaning climate change will be upon us as the crucial issue of the 4T, and so it is.

Of course, although I happen to see the 2050s as pretty smooth, euphoric and cheerful, just looking at the cycles, things will get stormier in the 2060s and 70s as we move into 3T with another 4T looming. And that cheerful 2T will also depend on whether we emerge from the preceding revolutionary era of the early 2T in the late 2040s in a positive way. Positive times are ahead of us IF we do the right things. If we don't, then we can't expect that outcome.

The latest guess from the IPCC, based on the current retrenchment in the US and waffling in Europe, is a gain of 3.3 degrees C by 2100.  Let's say that's pessimistic, but not that pessimistic.  It's still way beyond the 1.5 degrees C that will allow for mitigation, and much of that will be present by the 2050s.   By then, we'll actually see real climate effects on  food production and coastal erosion, among a host of other horrors.  That will be panic time, but will it be productive panic (all oars in the water and everyone pulling) or everyone for him/herself?  I don't know.  The youth today are woefully undereducated in civics, and this is a civic response at best or chaos at worst.