01-28-2019, 07:10 PM
Here is the analysis of the 115th Congress:
115th Congress:
House:
Silent: Mostly Democrat, building to a +15 advantage out of 23 members
Boomer: Starts off heavily democrat, building to a high of a +22 advantage by the 1952 birth year, after that Republicans slowly gain strength with a turn over in the 1958 birth year and ending with a Republican advantage of +16 out of 226
Gen X: Heavily Republican dominated with the generation ending at a +40 advantage for the Republicans out of 177 members.
Millennial: Too small a cohort in the House to be statistically significant, but 4 out of the 5 are Republican.
You can very plainly see the generational lines politically at play with an obvious tipping point in 1958.
Senate:
Silent: Mostly Republican, building to a +5 advantage out of 13 Senators
Boomer: Starts off heavily Democrat, building to a high of a +11 advantage by the 1950 birth year, after that Republicans pare back the advantage but never gain a turn-over. The generation ends with a Democrat advantage of +6 out of 56 Senators
Gen X: Splits evenly between the parties until the 1969 birth year, then swings to a Republican advantage of +5 out of 31 Senators.
Millennials: N/A.
The generational trends here are fascinating. The Republicans have a strong lock on the Silents with an abrupt swing to the Democrats as soon as you start the Boomer generation. The Democrats then hold the advantage until the 1950 birth year, after which the Republicans gain enough strength to bring the generational representation into rough parity until 1969. After that, Republicans gain a small advantage in the late stage Gen-X.
Conclusions:
Both houses seem to show clear swings from one extreme in representation to another along generational lines. In the House, this is strikingly clear with a move from extreme Democrat membership in the eldest members, a cross over in 1958 leading to a strong Republican position in the younger generations. In the Senate, this process seems to be offset from the House, with an extreme Republican representation in the silents, leading to an abrupt shift to Democrats in the 1943 birth year, culminating in a Democrat peak in 1950. Afterwards Republican balance Democrat strength until the 1969 birth year, after which we see another swing to Republican strength.
In each houses, the Silents and Gen X are showing clear preferences generationally, though the split between the House and Senate Silents on which party they prefer is fascinating. The largest cohort in both houses, the Boomers, seems to display a lack of consensus with relatively small representational advantages compared to their size. In both houses, the Boomers lean to the Democrats, though Republicans seem to check this with the 1950-1952 cohorts. I suspect this lack of consensus among the Boomers is reflecting the fact that the country has not yet developed the consensus on the new model predicted in Generations and the Fourth Turning.
The 10 year difference in turn over dates from Democrat strength to Republican strength (House: 1958, Senate 1969) is another interesting difference which provokes speculation.
115th Congress:
House:
Silent: Mostly Democrat, building to a +15 advantage out of 23 members
Boomer: Starts off heavily democrat, building to a high of a +22 advantage by the 1952 birth year, after that Republicans slowly gain strength with a turn over in the 1958 birth year and ending with a Republican advantage of +16 out of 226
Gen X: Heavily Republican dominated with the generation ending at a +40 advantage for the Republicans out of 177 members.
Millennial: Too small a cohort in the House to be statistically significant, but 4 out of the 5 are Republican.
You can very plainly see the generational lines politically at play with an obvious tipping point in 1958.
Senate:
Silent: Mostly Republican, building to a +5 advantage out of 13 Senators
Boomer: Starts off heavily Democrat, building to a high of a +11 advantage by the 1950 birth year, after that Republicans pare back the advantage but never gain a turn-over. The generation ends with a Democrat advantage of +6 out of 56 Senators
Gen X: Splits evenly between the parties until the 1969 birth year, then swings to a Republican advantage of +5 out of 31 Senators.
Millennials: N/A.
The generational trends here are fascinating. The Republicans have a strong lock on the Silents with an abrupt swing to the Democrats as soon as you start the Boomer generation. The Democrats then hold the advantage until the 1950 birth year, after which the Republicans gain enough strength to bring the generational representation into rough parity until 1969. After that, Republicans gain a small advantage in the late stage Gen-X.
Conclusions:
Both houses seem to show clear swings from one extreme in representation to another along generational lines. In the House, this is strikingly clear with a move from extreme Democrat membership in the eldest members, a cross over in 1958 leading to a strong Republican position in the younger generations. In the Senate, this process seems to be offset from the House, with an extreme Republican representation in the silents, leading to an abrupt shift to Democrats in the 1943 birth year, culminating in a Democrat peak in 1950. Afterwards Republican balance Democrat strength until the 1969 birth year, after which we see another swing to Republican strength.
In each houses, the Silents and Gen X are showing clear preferences generationally, though the split between the House and Senate Silents on which party they prefer is fascinating. The largest cohort in both houses, the Boomers, seems to display a lack of consensus with relatively small representational advantages compared to their size. In both houses, the Boomers lean to the Democrats, though Republicans seem to check this with the 1950-1952 cohorts. I suspect this lack of consensus among the Boomers is reflecting the fact that the country has not yet developed the consensus on the new model predicted in Generations and the Fourth Turning.
The 10 year difference in turn over dates from Democrat strength to Republican strength (House: 1958, Senate 1969) is another interesting difference which provokes speculation.