6 Turnings

[Jessquo]

(03-11-2019, 04:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-11-2019, 04:15 PM)Jessquo Wrote:

(03-11-2019, 02:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Thanks for your thoughts. Contributions from new posters are appreciated, even if people may disagree.

I like the idea that there are many grey champions, not just one. I thought back in 1997 that Hillary might be one; that didn't quite work out

2008 works quite well as the neo-crash that opened the 4T, much like the last crash did. The Trump election just confirms our crisis condition. People being deceived by demagogues and nationalist racists happened in the last 4T too, and Trump is Mussolini reincarnate, and this also resembles the Dixie hotheads.

I agree very much that this crisis resembles the 1854-1865 crisis more than 1929-1945. I even extend it back a few years before 1854.

I predict this crisis will be longer than average, and the slower rate of change today and longer-lived generations means the saeculum will run it's full 84 archetypal length. Look for the climax in the mid 2020s. Count on it

Our views are similar. I also think that the climax will occur around the mid-2020s and the resolution around 2028. However, I believe that's only a 12-year crisis because according to my 6 turning cycle the crisis did not begin until 2016. The GFC was nowhere near as significant as the 1929 Crash and Great Depression, the 1854 Kansas-Nebraska Act, the Boston Tea Party, the Glorious Revolution, the extraordinarily high death rate during the settlement period or the desolation of the monasteries. The GFC is similar to the Depression of 1920-21 in significance. That event also occurred during an unravelling, not a crisis.

It's a plausible view. The alternative view is that the economy didn't really recover from the 2008 crash very much, and its affects abroad helped spur the Arab Spring revolts and civil wars and revolutions worldwide, which brought the rise of right wing, authoritarian and nationalist trends in Europe and Britain in reply, and the similar rise of Trump in the USA. 

Our 4T is a cold civil war, whose start preceded the great recession, but the rise of the Tea Party after 2009 made it worse and paralyzed congress and statehouses in deadlock for a decade, and meanwhile climate change has continued to get worse too, and helped fuel the revolt, with 2010 as the time of the great oil spill and 2008 the rise of gas prices that helped trigger the recession. And the gun violence crisis is growing too and becoming unacceptable to the millions who rose up against it in the Spring of 2018, and this also continues to fuel the cold civil war. The debt also got worse under Obama for a while, thanks to the recession, and now again under Trump, thanks to his policies.

I imagine GFC stands for the Great Financial Crisis; but 2008 was more than that and generally is known as the start of the Great Recession.

This is not an alternative view. I agree with most of this comment. The GFC and Geat Recession helped trigger the Trump election which has in turn exacerbated political polarisation in what was already a politically polarised society. That does not mean that the Crisis began in 2008. It just means that the events of the unravelling contributed to the events of the crisis. That's always the how it happens. WW1 in the unravelling contributed to WW2 in the Crisis. The rampant risk taking and extreme inequality of the 1920s contributed to the Depression of the 1930s. Essentially the beginning of the unravelling is what I imagine you deem to be the beginning of the crisis. The difference is I split these periods up by severity. The excesses of the Mission period always contributes to the beginning of the unravelling. The Neoliberal, globalisation and deregulation ideology of the 80s and 90s mission caused an unravelling backlash in the form of Islamic terrorism, economic recentment, political polarisation and financial instability.