Prospects of the Collapse of Civilization

[Eric the Green]

(03-09-2019, 06:29 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:

(03-08-2019, 12:27 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: One historian I wrote made the good point that social freedoms once won, are never entirely lost. It won't happen. Sex is too primal and powerful to suppress. But maybe the obsession will be less dominant. Based on the cycles I see, though, I can't promise that the next Awakening will be much different from the previous one in regard to sex. It is clear that the next Awakening will fulfill and further brighten and perfect the last one rather than take any kind of opposing direction to it.

It's not that simple.

Life of "social freedoms" was well known in ancient Canaan, but later austere Judaism of the Patriarchs took over. Ancient Greeko-Roman civilization also had a strong Dionysian aspect. Even Pythagoras ranted against a life of "sex, drugs and rock'n'roll". Then Christianity came, and "social freedoms" were eliminated for a long time. Even before Christianization homosexuality ceased to be aspected IIRC because the women were disgusted by their husbands practising it (I'll leave the graphic reasons to your imagination)

What matters is the dominant value system. As long as liberal values of 18th century revolutionaries are the strongest and most popular ideology in the Anglosphere, it will be hard to make a case against a hedonistic lifestyle. As long as the USA is the leading global power, the liberal ideology will be dominant because USA was built as an epitome of liberalism. Not even Trump can change that, he would have to disown the American Revolution and founding fathers. However, if China becomes the world leader in the new saeculum, its Confucian values will take over sooner or later. Chinese values will influence us, like Western values influenced China in the 19th and 20th centuries.

For the long term future, I think mankind will diversify, different sub-cultures will modify themselves in different ways and many new species will emerge. Some might opt for a Pythagorean-style ascetic intellectualism, others for techno-hedonism like the society of IM Banks' culture novels.

I doubt you can compare ancient societies to today in regard to "social freedoms." There certainly were dionysian aspects; after all, the god was invented by the Greeks, and there were places to go and cults to join in many parts of the Greco-Roman world. But most people didn't have much freedom. Few if any societies were ruled by liberal values. There were lots of social castes and taboos for various people in society.

My prophecy is pretty well-grounded. Perhaps you'll get to see if I am correct that the late 2040s will fulfill and extend the late 1960s.