Millennials and GenZ horribly misidentified

[Eric the Green]

(05-03-2019, 11:00 AM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(05-03-2019, 10:53 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: I agree with Eric here. 9/11 was not *that* important. Obviously it was a nightmare for people who died and for their families. It was a shock for everyone. But I remember a New Yorker (my cousin's friend) saying in retrospect it was less devastating than hurricane Sandy in 2012. The financial recession of 2008 was definitely more important for people's daily lives. As for the Internet, there is colossal difference between early and late 2000s. I was born in '86, so I remember the websites of 2001. When MySpace went mainstream in 2006, it made a huge difference.

Coming of age doesn't really mean 18, in the modern context extended adolescence is the norm, so people are more likely to start living an adult life around the age of 22. Using age 22 as a proxy for coming of age works well:
1968 for boomers
1986 for Xers
2006 for millennials
2025 for new Artists born in 2003

9/11 was far more impactful than Hurricane Sandy. 9/11 is when the mentality started to shift towards "Give up your freedoms in the name of society and security. Authority good." The war in Iraq resulting from this also resulted in the deficit that caused the 2008 crash. It's all related. Your coming of age is when your innocence is shattered. For Boomers, it was 1963 when JFK got assassinated. For Millennials it was 2001 or 2008. 2006 was not very significant at all IMO.

"When mentality started to shift towards "Give up your freedoms in the name of society and security. Authority good." " was not, I don't think, a trend in mentality that continued. We have instituted some security safeguards, but I don't think they have cost us our freedom. They could, if they become more oppressive as a result of further attacks. I don't support giving up freedom in the name of security. But I don't think we gave up our freedom, because we didn't have more attacks, and so more oppression than we got was not needed.

The crash of 2008 was largely caused by the Reaganomics trickle-down policy of deregulating business and banking, which Reagan launched, along with the ideology that supported it, and Clinton and others went along with at key times such as repeal of Glass-Steagall. The budget deficit did not cause any economic crash. That could only happen if defaults or severe anti-US sanctions happen and the currency collapses. What happened was that bundled mortgages that were used for speculation collapsed.

I doubt there is a regular time for each generation when an event shatters your innocence. Shattering events don't always start new turnings. Arguably, the events that start 2nd and 4th turnings are more shattering, and thus that would affect prophets and civics (in our case Boomers and Millennials) shifting from childhood to youth or "coming of age," whatever that means. But JFK's assassination did not shatter Boomer innocence. It was just the start of a cascade of events that shattered not only Boomer innocence, but American innocence held for decades and decades up until the mid-1960s. Also Pearl Harbor attacked, the 1919 bombing of Wall Street, and World War I were shattering events that did not start turnings. That may be because the generational constellation was not in place for a shift. Arguably, the constellation was not in place in 2001 yet either.

A turning shifts through a combination of mood-shifting events and generations reaching a certain age. The event may come a bit late or a bit early, which affects the precise date of the onset of a turning.

Using S&H dates, and the average age of generations, in 2008:

The average millennial was born in about 1992, 16 years old. So that was the average age of shift from childhood into youth.
The average Xer was born in about 1971, 37 years old. That was the average age of shift from youth into middle age.
The average Boomer was born in about 1952, 56 years old. That was the average age of shift from middle age to elderhood.
The average Silent was born in about 1933, 75 years old. That was the average age of shift from elder to old age.

Skipping back to the onset of the 2T in 1964:

The average Boomer was born in about 1952, so the average Boomer was 12 years old shifting from childhood into youth.
The average Silent was born in about 1933, so the average age was 31 years old shifting from youth into middle age.
The average GI was born in about 1912, so the average age was 53 years old shifting from middle age to elder.
The average Lost was born in about 1892, so the average age was 72 years old shifting from elder to old age.

Skipping back to the onset of the 4T in 1929:

The average GI was born in about 1912, so the average age was 17 years old shifting from childhood to youth.
The average Lost was born in 1892, so the average age was 37 years old shifting from youth to middle age.
The average Missionary was born in about 1872, so the average age was 57 years old shifting from middle age to elder.
The average Progressive was born in about 1851, so the average age was 78 years old shifting from elder to old age.

In recent American saecula, it appeared that the timing of the Awakening was speeded up a bit by events (early 1T due to the early end of WWII thanks to the Battle of the Bulge, and the JFK assassination and Vietnam War), while the timing of Crises was slowed down a bit by events (it took a while for the full effect of the economic house of cards to truly fall, thanks to the inherent strength of the American economy).