In those earlier books I believed that the generations in the modern era had had a fixed length of 18 years. This was based on a correlation between stock market cycles and generations that had been operating since the Great Power 3T. The stock market cycle broke down in 2014. Thus any conclusions based on it are invalid.
I now believe the base generational cycle consists of one dominant generation and one recessive generation. A integral number of these cycles can be bracketed together into a larger unit we call the saeculum.
In post-revolutionary America, the length of these generational cycles is the difference between the average age of people in leadership (AL) and the age at which youth come of age (21). With rising AL these cycles are getting longer with time.
Consider the period between the elections of 1860 and 1932 (after which big changes happened), defining important break-points in American history. Al was 58 in 1932 giving a cycle length of 37 years and defining a cycle from 1895-1932. AL was 55 in 1895, giving a cycle length of 34 years and defining a cycle from 1861-1895. So the 1860-1932 period defines one saeculum, containing four generations/turnings that span 72 years.
Now consider the cycle that ended in 1860. AL was 52 in 1860 giving a cycle length of 31 years and defining a cycle from 1829-1860. AL was 50 in 1829, giving a cycle length of 29 years and defining a cycle from 1800-1829. So the 1800-1860 period defines a saeculum, containing four generations/turnings that spans 60 years.
Does the 1800 election, which Jefferson referred to a “revolution” come across as a real turning point in American history like 1860 or 1929, or was Jefferson perhaps exaggerating a bit? I think he was exaggerating. So I note AL was 48 in 1800 giving a cycle length of 27 years and defining a cycle from 1773-1800. This gives me a saeculum from 1773 to 1860 that contains six generations/turnings that spans 87 years. This makes much more sense to me as a saeculum.
Let's speculate that 2008 began a new era in America, like these other dates. AL in 2008 was 61, giving a cycle length of 40 years and defining cycle from 1968-2008. AL was 56 in 1968, giving a cycle length of 35 years and defining a cycle from 1933-1968, which fits nicely in an 1932-2008 saeculum containing four turnings.
But does the election of 2008 really begin a new era? I certainly thought it was a big deal at the time, like Jefferson felt about 1800. But in hindsight we can see that 1800 was the big deal the victors thought it was. And maybe 2008 isn’t going to be either. At present AL has risen to 63, giving a 42 year cycle. If we add that to 2008, we have a potential saeculum running from 1932-2050, containing six turnings with average length 19.7 years.
I now believe the base generational cycle consists of one dominant generation and one recessive generation. A integral number of these cycles can be bracketed together into a larger unit we call the saeculum.
In post-revolutionary America, the length of these generational cycles is the difference between the average age of people in leadership (AL) and the age at which youth come of age (21). With rising AL these cycles are getting longer with time.
Consider the period between the elections of 1860 and 1932 (after which big changes happened), defining important break-points in American history. Al was 58 in 1932 giving a cycle length of 37 years and defining a cycle from 1895-1932. AL was 55 in 1895, giving a cycle length of 34 years and defining a cycle from 1861-1895. So the 1860-1932 period defines one saeculum, containing four generations/turnings that span 72 years.
Now consider the cycle that ended in 1860. AL was 52 in 1860 giving a cycle length of 31 years and defining a cycle from 1829-1860. AL was 50 in 1829, giving a cycle length of 29 years and defining a cycle from 1800-1829. So the 1800-1860 period defines a saeculum, containing four generations/turnings that spans 60 years.
Does the 1800 election, which Jefferson referred to a “revolution” come across as a real turning point in American history like 1860 or 1929, or was Jefferson perhaps exaggerating a bit? I think he was exaggerating. So I note AL was 48 in 1800 giving a cycle length of 27 years and defining a cycle from 1773-1800. This gives me a saeculum from 1773 to 1860 that contains six generations/turnings that spans 87 years. This makes much more sense to me as a saeculum.
Let's speculate that 2008 began a new era in America, like these other dates. AL in 2008 was 61, giving a cycle length of 40 years and defining cycle from 1968-2008. AL was 56 in 1968, giving a cycle length of 35 years and defining a cycle from 1933-1968, which fits nicely in an 1932-2008 saeculum containing four turnings.
But does the election of 2008 really begin a new era? I certainly thought it was a big deal at the time, like Jefferson felt about 1800. But in hindsight we can see that 1800 was the big deal the victors thought it was. And maybe 2008 isn’t going to be either. At present AL has risen to 63, giving a 42 year cycle. If we add that to 2008, we have a potential saeculum running from 1932-2050, containing six turnings with average length 19.7 years.