08-24-2019, 08:54 PM
India and Pakistan are used to low level, nonexistential warfare. If that got existential, then it would escalate to nuclear weapons quickly, but they've got a lot of experience avoiding that. Still, I would agree that's not an unlikely place for nuclear war to start.
It's not currently in Japan's interests to get nuclear weapons. A nuclear Japan would be a threat to North Korea, which Japan currently is not; that would increase, not decrease, the chance that Japan would become a target of North Korean nuclear weapons.
That might change if Trump's trade war with China becomes so successful that China decides they need to give their public some military victories to keep them from rebelling. They'd probably start in the South China Sea, though, which wouldn't immediately implicate Japan. Still, a militarily aggressive China could tempt Japan to get nuclear weapons just in case. Japan could probably develop nuclear weapons within weeks if they wanted to.
The other potential clash is between the EU and Russia. Once Brexit is complete, France will be the only nuclear power in the EU and will be in a position to seize military and foreign policy leadership. Given their protected location at the opposite end of the continent from Moscow, they might be tempted to take an aggressive stance with respect to, for example, Ukraine. Tusk said today that Ukraine should be invited to join the G-7 ahead of Russia; no better way could be found to incense Russia.
I almost hope the war starts in Europe. Then it could be a replay of WWII, and we know that works out well for the US.
It's not currently in Japan's interests to get nuclear weapons. A nuclear Japan would be a threat to North Korea, which Japan currently is not; that would increase, not decrease, the chance that Japan would become a target of North Korean nuclear weapons.
That might change if Trump's trade war with China becomes so successful that China decides they need to give their public some military victories to keep them from rebelling. They'd probably start in the South China Sea, though, which wouldn't immediately implicate Japan. Still, a militarily aggressive China could tempt Japan to get nuclear weapons just in case. Japan could probably develop nuclear weapons within weeks if they wanted to.
The other potential clash is between the EU and Russia. Once Brexit is complete, France will be the only nuclear power in the EU and will be in a position to seize military and foreign policy leadership. Given their protected location at the opposite end of the continent from Moscow, they might be tempted to take an aggressive stance with respect to, for example, Ukraine. Tusk said today that Ukraine should be invited to join the G-7 ahead of Russia; no better way could be found to incense Russia.
I almost hope the war starts in Europe. Then it could be a replay of WWII, and we know that works out well for the US.