08-26-2019, 02:15 PM
(08-25-2019, 03:47 PM)David Horn Wrote:(08-24-2019, 02:51 PM)Mikebert Wrote: T-his is true. But Trump's Trade War is in its nascent phase, and the economic issues to be resolved by this policy (and other things not yet addressed) will require time. The idea that the 2020 election could bring a flurry of change creating the structural change characteristic of a 4T in the next half dozen years allowing for an end to the 4T in the mid-2020's seems to me to be fantastical. There is no way progressive political forces will have the same legislative dominance in 2021 as they did in 2009. It seems a fools errand to expect structural change following the 2020 election.
Yet the accelerating disintegration of the ability of the American political system to deal with issues has become a pressing issue, which may need to be the central issue redressed by the 2020 election. Even if this happens, it does nothing to address the core issued needing redress from even before the turning began. It is increasingly hard to see how these issues could be even addressed much less resolved. before 2030. The reason for this is the lack of action in 2009, when Democrats had more power than they will likely seed for a couple of decades or more.
Then when you combing this with an obvious turning change around 2000, it becomes impossible to conceive of a single secular crisis turning consistent with modern generational length that can account for the beginnings of a police state in 2001 with the massive economic justice struggles that will have to take place in the 2020's. You cannot plausibly have an 17 yr turning (1929-46), an 18 year turning (1946-64), a 20 yr turning (1964-84) a 21 yr turning (1984-2005) with a 25+ year turning from 2005 to after 2030. It's too ad hoc.
Yes, the real issues needing resolution are well outside the reach of any political movement in existence, and not quite pressing enough to force a change by some magic form of acclamation, so I agree. We aren't likely to see an end to the crisis until it manifests in full, so what will that take? A total collapse of the economic system seems far fetched, but maybe not in a decade or two. Climate is changing unabated, but the pace isn't THAT fast. Again, this looks like a 2050+ crisis, at least as we define a crisis today. Loss of faith in our leaders is already well advanced, but no alternative has emerged to address issues in the political sphere.
In short, we seem to be screwed in the near term, and extremely exposed in the mid to long term. Wonderful legacy we've deeded our progeny.
Once it gets going, things will happen fast. Ocasio-Cortez may be the harbinger. And she can close her eyes and see a better day; she said so on her famous video. Not that's she's a future president, just an indicator of where things may go. For once a 4T change gets going, there's no telling how far it will go. The 2010s were always the 1850s redux. I've predicted that and said that for years here and elsewhere. The 2010s are the phony 4T. The real thing gets going next year and in the following 2 years. It reaches it climax at mid-decade, and only ends in 2028 or 2029. Again, just stick with what I have said, and it's all clear. No need for despair yet; no need to throw out any theories yet.
Are we up to it? Well, the resistance is up and running. So we'll see if it can clear the blocks, and how fast. My prediction stands; they will be cleared, the 40-year stall will end and our nation will roll on forward.