08-29-2019, 02:37 PM
(08-27-2019, 10:12 AM)David Horn Wrote:(08-27-2019, 09:28 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:(08-24-2019, 03:21 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(08-24-2019, 01:46 PM)sbarrera Wrote: The point is Trump is leading in a manner consistent with what turnings theory predicts for his generation in this turning.
Absolutely. In fact, Trump's victory in the 2016 election was a major victory for generational theory.
The major questions at this point are how the crisis war will start, and whether we'll be on the winning side or the losing side.
You can look it from another angle. Whether Clinton or Trump, the election of 2016 was destined to be a major victory for 90s nostalgia and going back to 3T values. Bernie would have been different, but he is a Silent. Ideally, Silents should have presided over 3T and Boomers over 4T, but in fact Boomers dominate both.
Whether Trump wins a second term or not, we are officially a different country than we were in 2015. If he loses in a major way, we'll almost certainly move in a progressive path. If he wins, it will be the start of something authoritarian -- moreso than he's managed to date. In either case, the election of 2016 was a watershed; we just aren't certain what kind.
I think we an discount both Biden and Bernie, so the next leg of the journey will be lead by a Boomer or an Xer. Which will determine the tenor of the next few years, but it won't be path back to what was no matter who wins. The American Century is done.
If we discount Bernie or Biden, then Trump very likely wins. That does not mean we are starting a new authoritarian country, but it will mean that the USA has little time left to turn back, and it will have to be through congress. The Senate may go democratic in 2020 even if Trump wins, and certainly will by 2022 if Trump wins. The House, even though still gerrymandered in many states, is unlikely to go back into Tea Party/Trumpist hands. The demographics and partial removal of gerrymandering probably has made that less likely, and statehouses are unlikely to go Republican in the 2020 general election like they did in the 2010 midterm, which was the election that put the House in Republican hands for 8 years.
If Trump wins in 2020, then the 2022 midterm will be a tsunami of Democratic votes, and he could be reduced to a figurehead. Congress will then make policy in 2023, and the president (maybe Pence by then) won't be able to block it, though his Courts might still be able to, to some extent (depending on how Democratic, and how effectively so, the Senate is in 2021-22). From there, a 2024 Democratic White House would be assured for the next 8 years.
It might even be better politically for the Democrats if Trump wins in 2020, but of course these days, any Republican victory anywhere is a disaster for the country, so it would be better overall if Sanders or Biden wins in 2020. And if either of them do, they will probably have to be succeeded by McAuliffe or Landrieu in 2024 to keep the White House in the hands of the better party. Or there may be a powerful third party by then. We can't tell for sure how far change can go in a 4T.