Trump as 4T Leader

[David Horn]

(08-29-2019, 02:37 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(08-27-2019, 10:12 AM)David Horn Wrote: I think we an discount both Biden and Bernie, so the next leg of the journey will be lead by a Boomer or an Xer.  Which will determine the tenor of the next few years, but it won't be path back to what was no matter who wins.  The American Century is done.

If we discount Bernie or Biden, then Trump very likely wins. That does not mean we are starting a new authoritarian country, but it will mean that the USA has little time left to turn back, and it will have to be through congress. The Senate may go democratic in 2020 even if Trump wins, and certainly will by 2022 if Trump wins. The House, even though still gerrymandered in many states, is unlikely to go back into Tea Party/Trumpist hands. The demographics and partial removal of gerrymandering probably has made that less likely, and statehouses are unlikely to go Republican in the 2020 general election like they did in the 2010 midterm, which was the election that put the House in Republican hands for 8 years. 

There is a sea change in the works. Neither of these war horses will be able to lead in that changing environment -- not even Bernie, with his army of Millennials. So, in a tug-of-war between either Biden or Bernie and Trump, Trump might win by default … or the winning Dem will be emasculated by party infighting and GOP opposition.

Eric the Green Wrote:If Trump wins in 2020, then the 2022 midterm will be a tsunami of Democratic votes, and he could be reduced to a figurehead. Congress will then make policy in 2023, and the president (maybe Pence by then) won't be able to block it, though his Courts might still be able to, to some extent (depending on how Democratic, and how effectively so, the Senate is in 2021-22). From there, a 2024 Democratic White House would be assured for the next 8 years. 

… except that, by then, the census and the gerrymandering of the nation will have been completed. Waiting for 2030 is not an option.

Eric the Green Wrote:It might even be better politically for the Democrats if Trump wins in 2020, but of course these days, any Republican victory anywhere is a disaster for the country, so it would be better overall if Sanders or Biden wins in 2020. And if either of them do, they will probably have to be succeeded by McAuliffe or Landrieu in 2024 to keep the White House in the hands of the better party. Or there may be a powerful third party by then. We can't tell for sure how far change can go in a 4T.

We're fossils, and so are your candidate choices. We need to hand-off to younger people, because the future is theirs, not ours.