To impeach, or not to impeach

[pbrower2a]

(10-04-2019, 04:03 PM)taramarie Wrote:

(10-04-2019, 03:13 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-03-2019, 02:00 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-02-2019, 11:55 PM)taramarie Wrote: LOL!!! One of my childhood memories was "I did not have sex with that woman." Which he did. Now who is lying here! Good grief how can someone say that wasn't a lie? Classic xer is right here and you are lying for Bill.

Agreed: sex isn't just intercourse, and Bill certainly had sex.  The only real difference between the Clinton affair and Trump's actions (too many to list) is personal versus public crimes.  Trump is involving the nation in his crap.

Right. And Trump's sexual behavior is criminal, whereas Clinton's was not. The only question was whether he lied about it under oath. In his mind, he did not, because he defined sex as intercourse, and what he had was oral sex. He later admitted that his behavior was inappropriate, and that he covered it up to protect his family. I admire Hillary for taking him to the closet, and then forgiving him. But to impeach him based on that was certainly nothing more than politics by a corrupt group of oligarchic Republican politicians who, it was CERTAINLY proven, had much WORSE sexual behavior in their OWN backgrounds. They were a bunch of stupid, lying, greedy hypocrites. To focus anything at all on Clinton's sexual actions and testimony is pretty silly and, what's worse, terribly distracting, and deliberately so by those who defend a compulsive liar and destroyer of everything of value-- our fake orange president.

Well other than the fake president part which he's not. He apparently legally is your president, I could be wrong about the legal part and correct if wrong. I hope that the USA has not become so corrupt to illegally anoint someone a president and it can be debated given the voting power of those in higher positions compared to the average joe in your country, and I do say in your country for a reason....thankfully. Other than these things I do agree with you here. Just don't lie for him, oral sex is still sex regardless if that is all that happened or not. But is it anyone's business, absolutely not. Trump as we know sounds far more sinister and not in a consensual way.

The impeachment process can move quickly. Democrats will almost certainly impeach him, as they need a simple majority. The offenses of which he will be charged will not be trivial. Many who thought it premature and unwise to impeach the President have decided quickly that a Congressional inquiry (the first phase) is now necessary due to the severity of the allegations. Democrats rarely have the political advantage on issues of national security, but Donald Trump seems to have handed it too them on a silver platter. 

What the Republican majority does in the Senate will reflect such moral compass as they have or lack. 

...Donald Trump is President because he won the critical 'right votes' instead of winning a plurality. Of the 537 electoral votes involving the President, the ones that he does not get are in a few states (some of them very large, including California) that vote Democratic by 15% and at times as much as 25% more Democratic, that means that 181 electoral votes are beyond any contest by Republicans. But a state such as California has no more clout in the Presidential election whether it goes 75-25 for the Democrat or 52-47. In an even election the Republican is up by nearly 8% in other states on the whole. Trump could win by because it is difficult for a Democrat to win in the other states.

The advantage of that system is that a state gets no advantage for disenfranchising voters or doing overt fraud, things difficult for the federal system to stop in the distant past. As an example, blacks rarely voted in some states before 1965, and in some states a Democrat could expect to win 80% or more of the vote once winning the Democratic Party. (In those days, there was about as much meaningful competition in statewide elections as there was in a typical Commie state).

The disadvantage is that with winner-take-all, large minorities can be ignored in some states. Texas has large Hispanic and black minorities, but those are usually irrelevant in Presidential elections. Likewise, agrarian interests in New York and Illinois get neglected. Nobody questions whether Democrats win by huge majorities in... Maryland... honestly. I would not want an election result in an otherwise-close election being decided by politicians in a few states stuffing ballot boxes to fix the result nationwide. 

The problem of Donald Trump is that too many of us fell for a demagogue who promised much that Americans wanted but most politicians recognize that they can never deliver. Demagogues are the bane of democracy, whether Hitler, Peron, Duvalier, Mugabe, or Trump.           

.................

I can predict several possible results.

1. Democrats either fail to bring up impeachment or lack the votes with which to do so. That was possible a week ago, but not anymore. 

2. Trump resigns either in disgrace or on such a pretext as "reasons of health" while proceedings are underway. This is hard to guess.

3. The Senate finds some means of a peremptory dismissal of charges through a quick procedural vote that denies a meaningful trial. That will look very bad -- as a cover-up done for partisan reasons and contrary to judicial process. Such would ensure that Trump gets to stay in office until January 21, 2021... but that Democrats end up with a Senate majority after such a scandal. Possible, and a poor choice. 

4. Trump gets acquitted as he can show himself completely innocent and goes on to lead a smashing GOP victory. Yeah, sure... many offenders claim innocence in what prove to be easy cases for conviction. Just see how the case goes.

5. The case is shaky, and we have ambiguity in a partisan split on conviction and removal. See #4. 

6. The case is strong, but the partisan divide is strong enough that Trump wins acquittal solely on the basis of a partisan split. That will not look good in the 2020 election for Trump or GOP Senators. 

7.  Republican Senators see a strong case and decide that the best hope for political relevance is to abandon Trump and take due chances on issues in 2020. We get a new President whose abilities will determine whether he gets elected in 2020 -- or an effective caretaker.