Eric, I understand why you would interpret my words as cynicism, but let me explain this once more to be more clear.
I believe that vasopressin levels are on the rise during a 4th turning, and as vasopressin is apparently an essential part of group aggression, there is a greater risk for aggression during a 4th turning. But the environment absolutely matters, just like Strauss & Howe write about the 4th turnings, and this can be compared to what it's like when puberty starts: when the surroundings a sound, there may not be many conflicts, but if the surroundings are socially fractured, the possibility of conflicts is much, much higher. I don't think this is cynicism. But to ignore the effects of hormonal activity on the group psyche would be ignorance in my mind (assuming I'm correct in the findings). I hope this clarifies things a bit. No need to apologize for sounding harsh, this forum is meant for criticism, and no theory can stand on its two feet if it can't handle criticism.
As for the generational hormone levels, there are no studies done on oxytocin and vasopressin since they've been so hard to detect reliably until recent years. But I believe that the combined stats of breastfeeding, paternal age, divorce rates and alcohol consumption show the changes to oxytocin levels. But unfortunately I have not yet come up with a way to find vasopressin levels from historical medical data, which is why the theory still mostly relies more on recorded historical events and social mood for vasopressin. You can check the chapter 6.3 for the initial findings on how to find and assess historical vasopressin levels until they're (hopefully soon) incorporated to the theory as a full chapter.
I believe that vasopressin levels are on the rise during a 4th turning, and as vasopressin is apparently an essential part of group aggression, there is a greater risk for aggression during a 4th turning. But the environment absolutely matters, just like Strauss & Howe write about the 4th turnings, and this can be compared to what it's like when puberty starts: when the surroundings a sound, there may not be many conflicts, but if the surroundings are socially fractured, the possibility of conflicts is much, much higher. I don't think this is cynicism. But to ignore the effects of hormonal activity on the group psyche would be ignorance in my mind (assuming I'm correct in the findings). I hope this clarifies things a bit. No need to apologize for sounding harsh, this forum is meant for criticism, and no theory can stand on its two feet if it can't handle criticism.
As for the generational hormone levels, there are no studies done on oxytocin and vasopressin since they've been so hard to detect reliably until recent years. But I believe that the combined stats of breastfeeding, paternal age, divorce rates and alcohol consumption show the changes to oxytocin levels. But unfortunately I have not yet come up with a way to find vasopressin levels from historical medical data, which is why the theory still mostly relies more on recorded historical events and social mood for vasopressin. You can check the chapter 6.3 for the initial findings on how to find and assess historical vasopressin levels until they're (hopefully soon) incorporated to the theory as a full chapter.
Generational hormone theory: https://jannemiettinen.fi/FourthTurning/