10-29-2019, 12:03 PM
(10-29-2019, 09:27 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: I don't really see any improvement to S+H's theories. Can you tell us why your interpretation of history makes more sense?
There a several reasons:
1) I have identified saeculums with far more consistent lengths than those in Generations. The shortest saeculum is 76 years and the longest is 85 years. Contrastingly, the shortest saeculum in Generations is 71 years and the longest is 110.
2) My Anglo-American patterns has been unbroken sinces 1377. This is 58 years before the 1435 start date identified by Strauss and Howe.
3) When there are 6 T/G within an 80 year cycle the 3 dominant generations are overwhelming born to, and have children who are themselves, dominant generations. The extremes nuture extremes. Likewise the recessives tend to be born to, and have children who are, recessive. This is because the average age difference between children and their parents is about 27 years. This is not the same as the average age difference between parents and their first born children. Parents (but particularly mothers) have historically started their families earlier, but have had a lot more children as they've aged. Parents today start their families later but have fewer children.
[There are 3 dominant and 3 recessive architypes.
Dominant archetypes are the Heroes (the most communitarian and conformist), the Prophets (the most idealistic/spiritual and rebellious) and the Nomads (the most individualistic/independent and least trusting).
The three recessive generations have traits that are a combination of the dominant generations immediately before and after them.
- Sages tend to emphasise the individual (like Nomads) but also believe in social, political and economic intervention/settlements (like Heroes) when they are used to enhance individual agency and empowerment (positive liberty) i.e. they are the most rational and perceptive archetype.
- Artists tend to believe in a big society and have a high degree of social capital (like the Heroes) but they are also relatively idealistic/philosophical (like the Prophets).
- Merchants tend to be somewhat philosophical/spiritual (like Prophets) but also more individualistic/independent and less trusting (like Nomads). While Merchants take on the beliefs of the Prophets regarding what constitutes the "good life" and what the general goals of society should be, they are far more cynical about human nature and large organisations such as govts, banks, corporations and unions. They tend to direct more of their energy/generosity toward their extended family and close friends than do Nomads whose benevolence tends to be more narrowly focused toward their immediate family.
Generations half a saeculum apart are opposite. When idealistic Prophets are in their leadership stage of life rational/perceptive Sages are in youth and vice versa. When Individualistic/Pragmatic Nomads are in leadership Principled Artists are in youth and vice versa. When Heroes (emphasising individual sacrifice for public achievement) are in leadership Merchants (emphasising self-help and personal achievement) are in youth and vice versa.
Parent child relationships in the 6 generational/turnings cycle
In my theory the parents of a generation tend to be from the generation before the previous generation. Generation Jones tend to be the parents of the Millennials and the Silent Generation tend to be the parents of Generation Jones. Likewise, Generation X tends to be the parents of Generation Z and the Boomers tend to be the parents of Generation X.
Consider the dominant archetypes. The Prophets under-protect their Nomad children who in turn overprotect their Hero children who in turn indulge their Prophet children.
Now consider the recessive archetypes. Merchants somewhat overprotect their Sage children who, during a crisis, manage their Artist children who in turn somewhat underprotect their Merchant children.
Merchants (e.g. Jones) were not as rebellious as the Prophets (e.g. Boomers). They simply absorbed many of their ideas. Generation Jones is more cynical about human nature than Prophets. Consequently, the merchant Generation Jones had more time and greater incentive to be more protective of their Sage children (e.g. Millennials), than the Prophets (Boomers) were of their Nomad children (Gen X).]
4) My cycle is unboken even during the American Civil War. S & H argued that the Civil War came a decade early. Nope it came right on time, according to my pattern.
5) If you look at the Anglo-American attachment I posted earlier you can see very distinct Diffusion and Mission periods.
[Turnings
Highs (First Turnings) – During a High institutions and communitarian values are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively. Those outside the majoritarian centre often feel stifled by the conformity.
Awakenings (Second Turnings) – During an Awakening, institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy by a Prophet generation in youth. Young activists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural and spiritual poverty.
Diffusions (Third Turnings) – During a Diffusion the new values that were predominantly held and championed by the Prophet generation during the Awakening are moderated (as the Prophets enter young adulthood) and spread widely across the Artist generation (entering or in middle age) and the Merchant generation (entering or in youth). That is, just as society is reaching its high tide of public progress, the majority suddenly tires of conformity and want to recapture a sense of self-awareness, spirituality and personal authenticity. During this era the rebellious nature of the Awakening comes to an end as the Artists, Prophets and Merchants coalesce around new political goals.
Missions (Fourth Turnings) – During a Mission the Artists who are in or entering, leadership positions enmass begin to pursue and implement the new political goals agreed upon by the Artist, Prophet and Merchant generations during the Diffusion. Society continues to atomize and enjoy. Institutions adapt to the values diffused in the previous turning.
Unravellings (Fifth Turnings) – The excesses of the Mission turning begin to haunt the political establishment and lead to a breakdown in the broad political consensus arrived at during the Diffusion. Radical political movements begin to gain traction. A sense of unease and foreboding takes hold. Institutions become increasingly weak and distrusted.
Crises (Sixth Turnings) – Crises are eras of destruction and extreme political volatility, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s survival. There are four stages within a crisis turning. The first stage is a catalyst that shocks the nation out its complacency. There is a realisation that things are not going to pan out as we had anticipated and that we need to change our goals and expectations. The second stage of a crisis turning is the regeneracy in which we begin to coalesce around some leader or movement about whom or which we feel positive. This involves some person we can trust to piece together institutions that can make sense again. There are more shocks and deteriorations. We then reach the third stage of a crisis called the climax. This is when we match the worsening social, political and economic reality with greater and greater civic effort. We rebuild our civic life to match this ever-increasing sense of crisis. We reach and pass the climax and come to the final stage of the fourth turning: The Resolution. The treaties are signed the negotiations are made. Civic life solidifies and we arrive at the post-crisis order.]
