Thoughts from the Russian Federation

[Eric the Green]

(11-09-2019, 08:41 PM)Isoko Wrote: You post interesting thoughts and I can see your pattern of thinking. It is what is known as the linear theory of history and actually originates from Judeo-Christian thinking. That is all the events of history lead up to an eventuality of world peace and prosperity through progress.

I actually do not see history in this way but more of a cyclical repeat albeit with different flavourings. People inherently never learn from the past and same mistakes are always repeated. 

I certainly agree that history is cyclical and mistakes are repeated. But I agree with Martin Luther King Jr. The arc of history is long, but it bends toward justice (a paraphrase of Theodore Parker's statement). I do see progress in history, overall. In one sense, one era is not better than another; the medieval worldview was better than modernism in many ways, for example. Cathedrals are better than bank skyscrapers, too. But all in all, I think the modern world offers more and longer life for more people, and a wider perspective of knowledge.

Quote:I think we are entering not a global stage but more a civilizational stage of history. The big powers are forming a civilisational mark and we do see this return to the great game that is now being played out in Africa and the ME between the powers. Chinese youth seem content with the Communist Party (aside from Hong Kong) and so do other nations.

As for the 2020s, I have done alot of esoteric research into the matter and it always points to the same result. Collapse of the West and the rise of the BRICS. America is basically the British Empire in decline and Europe its vassal states. It is an unfortunate turn of affairs but I do see the West reviving itself on green agricultural based economic methods so there is some hope. Its just that the time now belongs to the East and not the West. With their more protectionist way of thinking, we are indeed entering a new long century.

I am more optimistic, based on my own esoteric research into the matter . Tyranny has made a comeback in recent years, but that is just the cyclic ebb and flow. Long term, the people everywhere want freedom and a good life, including in China. People living under tyranny can only do so much, but eventually the movement toward freedom succeeds. People in Asia and Africa want the same things that Americans and Europeans want. China now being under a stultifying tyranny will slow down in its advance toward world leadership. It might happen that China becomes #1, and it seems likely now, but by the mid-2030s we will see China enter a new period of revolution, and human rights will advance there.

It won't matter then, if the USA and Europe are #2 and #3 or lower, then. The same forces and same human desires will operate, regardless of which nation has the highest GNP. The principles of The West are now the principles of the East and the whole world since the collapse of imperialism. And by the same token, the principles of the East have also been absorbed by The West since the sixties.

Just for fun, a paraphrase of my favorite song: "And the parting on the East, is now a parting on the West, and no longer is one nation now the best!"

There will be no "collapse of The West" in the coming years, because "The West" already collapsed in the world wars. That was the defining moment of our new era of civilization. There is now no such thing as The West.

Meanwhile, the USA and the Western nations and many others have been under the dominance of neo-liberalism for 40 years, and that has caused the USA, Britain and other nations to decline and stagnate. The 2020s will see the collapse of neo-liberalism in the USA and Europe/Britain. That will bring about a revival of the fortunes of the USA and its people. It will have to go through a 4T first, but it looks like it will come back with the people winning, and boom times will return. And I do also see a green revival in the 2040s.