Thoughts from the Russian Federation

[Eric the Green]

(11-10-2019, 01:42 PM)Isoko Wrote: OK Eric, now that I am back, I thought I would reply to your post as I find it quite interesting. From my own research Eric, it does align with your own findings in some areas. I agree with you about the 2020s crisis. This will be the ending of the current neoliberal authority that rules in the West and I do see revolutions happening in countries like Iran other places. In the case of Russia and China, there won't be a revolution but more a case of a changing of the old guard scenario. 

But this is the two fundamental differences that we are going to see between West and East. The West is going to more than likely economically collapse or at the very least go into a major depression which will force these countries to develop a new economy aka green revolution in 2040. I do foresee this happening with agricultural being a booming business, creating new small businesses and in general reviving the west's fortunes. Mass immigration to Europe though will stop and most migrants will go home and rebuild their own countries with Europe adopting more stricter border controls. So the fears of Eurabia are unfounded. 

The east on the other hand is going to go through something akin to the 1848 Liberal revolutions Europe had. They want more representation in government and in general more money flowing to them. However unlike the West that is concerned about the environment, the east isn't heavily that concerned. They want the good quality of life the West has had and if it means industrialisation they are going to do it. 

My belief is from my own research that global cooperation is possible and I believe you are correct it is going to happen. But right now we still have a region of the world that isn't prepared to make sacrifices and want what we had. My predictions therefore point to the east going down the consumer capitalist Road. It'll be peaceful but like the 19th century that eventually reached the peak of development and grew bored, I foresee the east going along the same lines. Same old is boring, resources are growing scarce. This itself will be their version of the next 4T. I'm looking at the years of this about 2080 to 2150.

What you are predicting is everyone wants the same and we are all the same. Fundamentally it is true but I don't think that we will ever truly become the same and each distinct civilisation has its own road of how to get there. The end result will be global peace and cooperation but its going to still be a bumpy road. 

There is an interesting article based on Spengler written by a guy called John Michael Greer. Perhaps you have heard of him? He follows more the cyclical theory of history but he has some things interesting to say about America and Russia birthing the next two great cultures. He called them Tantamous and Sobornost respectively. Its quite an interesting read on how the future could shape up to be. 

My own thoughts tend to be in the middle of you and Greer although. As for the end of the West, you are correct. It was the end of Europe as a dominant power and instead the gears of history shifted towards America and Russia. So you are correct, the West in that essence is dead and what we have been living with is more an American based system that was competing with the Soviet Union for the heart and soul of Europe.

Good ideas. Makes more sense to me. I have one caveat though, in that the climate and environmental crisis is requiring all societies east, west, south and north to improve their economies in a faster kind of evolution. It won't be possible for them to do this in the way 19th century western societies did. And they have already agreed to this, and have started to implement it. Politically though, of course, they have a ways to go to catch up to the "west." I expect more freedom movements to continue breaking out, as they are as we speak.

Unfortunately, since we in the USA have a monumentally-regressive regime chosen by 77,744 voters in 3 states according to an electoral system designed to appease slave-holders 230 years ago, the United States of America has resigned temporarily its leadership in the green vision and its willingness to negotiate the proper balance to which it agreed in 2015 with the other nations seeking more economic development. Mussolini-reincarnate's excuse is that it handcuffs his desire to regress the USA to 19th century goals of wanton industrial growth, national power and rampant oligarchy.